AGP Executive Report

Port Expansion Push (Canada): Prime Minister Mark Carney backed the Port of Vancouver’s Roberts Bank Terminal 2 expansion, saying capacity won’t meet Ottawa’s export and diversification goals; the plan targets a 50% container-capacity jump and Ottawa support of about $10B, with tens of thousands of jobs. Labor & Travel Risk (Canada): WestJet flight attendants issued a 72-hour strike notice over unpaid ground duties, with talks ongoing and a potential start Sunday during a busy August holiday weekend. Credit Conditions (Philippines): The BSP survey found most Philippine banks expect lending standards to stay broadly unchanged in Q3, pointing to stable credit risk practices. Inflation Focus (New Zealand): Ipsos’ Issues Monitor put cost of living/inflation at the top concern (62%), with healthcare and the economy next. Macro Growth (Netherlands): Dutch GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, driven by household and government spending, while net exports slightly dragged. Policy & Immigration (US): DHS is considering a proposed $100,000 OPT fee for international graduates, which could raise the cost of staying and working in the US. Middle East Energy Watch: Pakistan said US-Iran talks continue even as attacks resume, with Strait of Hormuz de-escalation a key focus. Corporate Moves (Finance): Robinhood said prediction markets are its fastest-growing unit, with Q2 revenue from the segment surpassing crypto trading.

Labor Market: Türkiye’s unemployment rate slid to a record-low 7.6% in June, with employment rising and youth joblessness easing. Growth Outlook: Philippines economists at UA&P cut Q2 growth to 2.5%, warning stubborn inflation and weak business confidence could slow momentum. SME Confidence: Malta and Gozo SMEs are largely sitting on the sidelines—78% are uncertain or unwilling to invest over the next 12 months. Trade & Policy: Türkiye signaled it will challenge a WTO panel finding on its auto import rules, while also reporting higher economic confidence in July. Middle East Shock: Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted sharply in Q2 as war-related oil disruptions hit the oil sector, while China pledged “incremental” support via faster spending on existing infrastructure. Corporate/Finance: FTC sued Hims & Hers over alleged health data sharing and subscription practices; Fitch affirmed Sri Lanka’s People’s Insurance at ‘A(lka)’. Tech & Work: Indonesia’s gig platforms are accused of dodging commission caps through hidden fees, and India’s industrial production rose 7.3% in June. Energy/Industry: EOS joined a hydrogen materials consortium, and Germany’s Q2 growth edged up 0.2% despite weak domestic spending.

Fed & markets: Nasdaq 100 slid into correction as three Fed officials backed a rate hike, while investors digested fresh Big Tech earnings and AI spending signals. Monetary policy & inflation: Gulf central banks held rates after the Fed kept borrowing costs steady; economists also flagged that persistent inflation and oil-driven gas costs could keep pressure on growth. Affordability & consumer strain: In the US, reports say more working-age adults are using credit cards for groceries, underscoring how prices are squeezing households. Corporate governance & retail: Kohl’s board chair John Schlifske stepped down, with Wendy Arlin taking over as chair. Nigeria economy & industry: The Dangote refinery was framed as central to Nigeria’s $1T economy vision, and Nigeria’s cash outside banks fell to a seven-month low as electronic payments expand. Energy & jobs (Australia): Queensland’s coal sector generated $38.4B in direct spending and supported 393,250 jobs. Tech & hiring trust: Texas opened an investigation into LinkedIn over “ghost jobs,” targeting job-listing integrity. Tourism strategy: Qatar doubled down on a year-round tourism model with targets and aviation-led marketing. Regional growth (Philippines): UA&P warned PH Q2 growth could slip to a post-pandemic low as inflation stays above target and oil prices rebound.

Youth Jobs & Retail Logistics (KZN): KwaZulu-Natal convened a spaza shop economy round table with Shoprite, Uber South Africa and Takealot to tackle youth unemployment via market access, spaza support and last-mile delivery coordination. Macroeconomics to Jobs (Ghana): Economist Prof. Godfred Bokpin says Ghana’s stability gains must be matched with a clear employment target, warning that inflation and growth goals won’t help livelihoods without job creation. Central Banking & Inflation (Australia): ANZ economists argue softer Q2 trimmed-mean inflation gives the RBA room to keep rates on hold in August. Labour Market Outlook (New Zealand): Westpac and ASB expect employment to rise only slightly, with labour force growth outpacing hiring and keeping the jobless rate under pressure, while wage growth stays contained. Digital Economy (ASEAN): Asean-BAC chair Jose Ma. Concepcion III calls for a more inclusive, borderless digital economy that helps MSMEs and women entrepreneurs scale. Housing (Hong Kong): Home prices rose for 13 straight months in June, with rentals also climbing. AI Governance (US): OpenAI and Anthropic staff circulated a petition urging US support for international tools to “deliberately pace” frontier automated AI development. Circular Textiles (Italy): Italy advanced extended producer responsibility rules for textiles, pushing importers and distributors to help fund post-consumer waste systems. Food Prices (South Africa): A household affordability index report says the food basket rose in July, with notable increases across major cities.

Oil & Inflation Watch: India’s finance minister says easing crude prices and improving supply-chain conditions should support the fiscal and inflation outlook, with Brent far below its April peak. Business Investment Pulse (UK): Lloyds finds almost half of UK firms plan to raise investment, with tech and AI infrastructure topping spending plans, even as energy and trading costs remain a drag. ASEAN Digital Push: Converge ICT will highlight fiber networks and “AI-ready” data centers at the ASEAN Tech Summit Manila as it transitions from telecoms to a tech company. Corporate Earnings (Canada/US): NOV reports Q2 2026 results; Ashland posts Q3 fiscal 2026 figures and reaffirms guidance; First Quantum reports Q2 2026 performance. Air Travel Pricing: Air Canada adds “basic” premium and business fare types with more restrictions, reflecting demand shifts in premium cabins. Africa Energy & Industry: Nigeria’s Bank of Industry urges stronger domestic capital mobilisation; Ghana’s economy committee praises the petroleum regulator’s downstream oversight. Climate & Trade Risk: Scientists warn that the Strait of Hormuz shipping bottleneck could spread invasive species, adding a new economic risk layer to global disruption.

Malaysia Economic Outlook: Malaysia’s economy is growing 5.8% in Q2 and is now 7.1% below the World Bank high-income threshold, with the OECD forecasting ~5% growth in 2026-27; Economy Minister Akmal Nasrullah says the priority is fixing the structural wage problem before expanding the personal income tax net. Energy Security: Malaysia is diversifying fuel sourcing as Strait of Hormuz risks linger, boosting biodiesel blending from B10 to B15 to keep supplies stable. Digital Infrastructure Finance: Sime Darby Property’s New Economy Venture set up a green sukuk programme up to RM2.6bn to fund build-to-suit data centres and logistics assets. Philippines Budget Push: Senate and House leaders flagged 2027 budget timing and cost-of-living measures, including a bill to raise take-home pay and expand tax relief for workers. India Digital Demand: India’s data centre capacity could jump to 12 GW by 2030 on AI-led power demand, while telecom growth continues with subscribers reaching 1.348bn in June. EV Policy & Manufacturing: India says its EV approach goes beyond incentives, pairing demand support with PLI and phased component manufacturing. China Tech & Trade Signals: China’s EV charging network hit 23.06m facilities (+43.2% y/y), and foreign firms show renewed CIIE optimism as import expo commitments top 1,200. Misinformation & Platforms: Singapore warns of AI deepfake Jack Ma videos driving misinformation, while India presses Meta after a Modi Facebook video was briefly blocked. Markets & Investment Mood: Nigeria’s stock market added N74tn in value over a year as investor confidence rises; Egypt leads Africa in FDI inflows for a fourth straight year.

Philippines Economic Push: Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian and House Speaker Faustino Dy III opened the new session with a focus on getting the economy back on track, including a “Ginhawa Bill” to raise take-home pay by cutting income tax for earners up to P400,000 and removing tax on bonuses, overtime, holiday pay and more. Regional Outlook: AMRO warned the Philippines still faces weakness ahead, holding 2026 growth at 4.1% while trimming inflation to 5.7%—still above the 3% target—citing oil-shock and trade-tension pressures. AI Meets the Main Economy: A U.S. investment strategist said AI is “diffusing” into the broader economy as big tech ramps up capital spending. Australia Productivity Bet: Commentary points to strong business investment growth as a path to higher productivity and resilience. UAE Mobility Expansion: SelfDrive expanded its Abu Dhabi fleet with more economy, sedan and SUV options. Argentina IMF Signal: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva hailed a “much sounder” Argentina under Milei, even as inflation progress remains mixed. New Zealand Demand Boost: A report says TikTok-related spending added about $1.2b to NZ GDP and supported nearly 10,000 jobs. Local Markets Upgrade: Ghana’s Tema West broke ground on a modern 24-hour economy market with stalls, cold storage, banking, clinic, police post and daycare. U.S. Tariff Politics: Trump defended auto tariffs in Michigan, arguing they’re helping GM even as critics warn of broader economic damage. Food Cost Relief: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced city grocery stores with a flat 30% discount on essentials, funded via capital support and operator subsidies. Business Finance: Celestica reported Q2 results with revenue up to $4.70b and raised its 2026 outlook; Psalion launched a $50m blockchain venture fund in Singapore.

Malaysia Statistics Bill: Malaysia’s Economy Minister says the Statistics Bill 2026 should be gazetted by year-end after Parliament steps, with a push to keep official data independent and to shift “culture” around statistics. Public Spending & Growth: The ministry reports RM1.214bn (57.42%) development spending as of July 21, aiming to finish among the top three, while still warning global uncertainty could bite despite 2Q growth beating forecasts. Competitiveness Push: Malaysia targets top-12 competitiveness, citing a jump to 15th in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, tied to stronger private consumption. Philippines Outlook: AMRO keeps 2026 growth at 4.1% but trims inflation, saying AI helps while oil-shock risks remain. Nepal Infrastructure: Nepal inaugurates its first modern road tunnel, Nagdhunga–Sisnekhola, cutting travel time to minutes and boosting trade reliability. Ghana Digital Trust: A Digital Economy Forum flags fraud and weak coordination as the main threat to Ghana’s cash-lite push, calling for better fraud intelligence sharing and public education. Ghana Jobs & Power: President Hichilema pledges to revive Collum Coal Mine and build a 600MW power station to support jobs and grid reliability. Kenya Blue Economy: Kenya allocates KES 3.8bn for fisheries landing sites and upgrades, aiming to modernize docks, cold storage and processing. AI Infrastructure Finance: Nvidia is reportedly in talks to back OpenAI with up to $250bn in data-centre financing guarantees, signaling a push toward more self-owned compute. Oil & Rates Watch: Oil falls on hopes of US-Iran talks; the Fed faces a confusing inflation mix, while the BOJ is likely to hold rates steady after its recent hike. Banking: Sanima Bank reports over 30% profit growth and improved dividend capacity for FY2082/83.

Fed Rate Call: The July 28–29 Fed meeting is suddenly a “coin toss” as economists weigh a possible rate hike amid resilient U.S. growth, renewed energy-price pressure from the Iran escalation, and Trump’s forced-labor tariff rollout. Tariffs & Inflation: New forced-labor tariffs cover about 99% of U.S. imports, with core goods inflation still positive and CPI rising 3.5% year-on-year to June—raising the stakes for shoppers and the Fed. U.S. Economy Split: Despite earlier momentum, mid-year growth concerns are building, with data center demand still propping parts of the economy while broader activity shows signs of cooling. Airline M&A Watch: United reportedly approached Delta about a potential merger; regulators would likely scrutinize any deal under antitrust rules. Africa Resilience Forum: WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Nigeria’s central bank governor Olayemi Cardoso will headline an Abuja forum focused on building resilience amid geo-economic uncertainty. Nigeria Production Push: Peter Obi argues Nigeria must shift from consumption to production, starting with agriculture and manufacturing, to drive jobs and cut poverty. ASEAN Consumer Mood: Singapore leads ASEAN’s consumer confidence rebound, helped by AI-linked demand and cost-of-living support. India Crypto Tax Rules: India’s tax authority issued guidance clarifying reporting duties for crypto platforms and foreign exchanges under the 2026 rules. Bahrain Real Estate Tech: Bahrain’s RERA upgraded its Aqari data service to improve access to property indicators and boost transparency.

Philippines Economic Push: Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian says President Marcos Jr.’s Monday SONA must tackle slowing growth, job creation and flood-control institutional reforms to protect poverty-reduction targets. Armenia Trade Momentum: Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan reports exports surging to China (+83.4%), India (+81.3%) and the EU (+80%) in Jan–Jun 2026, even as overall trade slightly dips. Armenia-Iran Energy Links: Tehran and Yerevan discussed a natural-gas push plus a power transmission line, a second bridge and a border crossing, with a joint working group proposed. Pakistan FX Relief Bid: Pakistan asked the US for a $10bn exchange stabilisation facility to bolster reserves and ease rupee pressure under its IMF program. UK Rates Watch: The Bank of England is set to hold rates at 3.75% despite oil-driven inflation risks. India Markets & Finance: India’s top firms lost Rs 2.74 lakh crore in market value last week, led by HDFC Bank, while PNB’s CEO targets profits above ₹20,000 crore in FY27. Turkey Consumer Rules: New e-commerce rules take effect Aug 1, tightening AI ad disclosure, influencer sponsorship labels and faster complaint handling. Gulf Energy Deal: Kuwait’s KPC signed a $16bn pipeline infrastructure deal with Blackstone, KKR and Brookfield, backing long-term export capacity. Creator Economy Shift: New guidance urges brands to move beyond one-off influencer posts as creator ad spending and “must-buy” status rise.

AI & Robotics Skills: Alhosh Gallery and Halatech Robotics & AI Edu open an “AI & Robotics Summer Camp” at Porto Arabia to turn coding and robotics into hands-on prototypes for the 2026-27 school year. Energy & Trade Logistics: Turkmenistan plans to push a UN-backed sustainable trade logistics center and a transregional transport corridor linking South/Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian. Defense Industry Cooperation: Bulgaria’s Deputy PM Poulev says talks with Germany and Rheinmetall are restarting “from scratch” to modernize the economy and expand defense supply-chain tech transfer. Crypto Regulation Moves: Russia’s Sberbank plans crypto trading infrastructure and a digital depository by Dec. 1 as rules roll out; North Korea arrests alleged crypto-linked bank hackers for laundering stolen state funds. Pakistan Tax & Cashless Push: Finance Minister Aurangzeb says FBR reforms, a cashless economy, and modern tax administration are underway to boost transparency and sustainable growth. Pakistan Export Drive: Food security minister urges a bigger export push to cut import dependence and help Pakistan “get rid of the IMF.” Regional Investment Signals: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev says Russian investment inflows rose 45% to $773m and total Russian-linked investment tops $9bn, with major projects creating jobs. Local Economy & Tourism Governance: Collingwood (Canada) opens applications for a new tourism board to spend municipal accommodation tax on longer-term tourism growth. US Economic Pressure: A report highlights how war and tariffs are again raising risks for a resilient US economy, even as unemployment claims stay low.

US-UK Trade: The US imposed forced-labour import charges on the UK and 59 others, but the UK says there’s “no negative change” to its tariff rate and that whisky and medical tech keep zero tariffs. US Tariffs & Markets: Oil slid after Middle East strike fears, helping stock markets stabilize as Brent dipped under $100. US Court/Policy: A US court rejected a bid to revive a higher H-1B visa fee, keeping hiring costs unchanged for employers. Pennsylvania Data Centers: Lawmakers in Pennsylvania are weighing ending a data-center sales tax exemption, with critics warning it would raise costs and slow investment. Consumer Protection (Estonia): Estonia drafted a bill to extend warranties to three years and require repair parts/services availability inside the country. Blue Economy (Africa): Angola and UNDP highlighted the blue economy as a diversification engine, with UNDP projecting up to $650bn by 2063. Kenya Mangroves: Kenya’s mangroves were framed as economic infrastructure for fisheries, coastal protection, and livelihoods. Solar & Energy (Home): A guide compares on-grid, off-grid, and hybrid solar setups as electricity bills rise. Corporate/Finance (India): Bank of India, REC, and CONCOR reported Q1 FY27 results, with dividends and improving asset quality in focus. Geopolitics & Supply Chains (India): Iran-related disruptions are pushing up Diet Coke prices in India via aluminium can shortages. Local Economy (Charleston): A long-delayed Cannon St. hotel zoning dispute is settled, clearing the way for a 175-room project. Workplace Rules (UK): UK employment experts urged employers to relax dress codes in extreme heat as a legal health-and-safety obligation. Real Estate (Madeira): Portugal’s economy secretariat is set to launch funding for micro-enterprises, targeting small firms struggling to access EU support.

US Trade & Tariffs: Trump’s forced-labor tariff sweep hits 60 countries, covering 99% of US imports, as small businesses sue over whether the policy is legally justified. Markets & AI Sentiment: Short interest in the S&P 500 is at its highest since 2010, while the Magnificent 7 shed about $767bn amid doubts about AI spending returns. Rates Watch: A Fed hike could come earlier than September, with oil back above $100 raising inflation worries. Energy & Inflation Link: Oil slid but stayed on track for weekly gains as Red Sea and Iran tensions keep supply disruption fears alive. Nepal Power Exports: Nepal set a record Rs 29.32bn from electricity exports to India and Bangladesh, driven by higher hydropower output. Transport Disruption: Nepalgunj–Pokhara flights were suspended, pushing passengers toward risky monsoon road travel. Digital Economy: Ethiopia’s Telebirr reported 2.61bn transactions and 60.6m customers, reinforcing its push for inclusive digital finance. Policy & Tax Admin: Nigeria’s finance minister inaugurated a VAT Modification Order 2026 committee to align VAT rules with the 2026 tax reform acts.

Thailand Growth Upgrade: Thailand’s finance ministry lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% on a rebound in private investment and consumption, plus stronger exports. Armenia Trade Status: Armenia is pushing the US to recognize it as a market economy for antidumping/countervailing cases, a move tied to ongoing Commerce Department review talks. Armenia Budget: Armenia reported a first-half 2026 budget surplus, with revenues up 14.7% and spending rising 7%. South Korea Output: Korea’s economy grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year in Q2, driven by semiconductor exports. Korea Inflation Watch: In New Zealand, Westpac flagged June inflation as above the RBNZ’s forecast, keeping pressure on further rate hikes. Energy & Inflation Risks: Renewed Gulf hostilities are reviving stagflation fears as oil tops $100 and tariffs add price pressure. Eurozone PMI: Eurozone business activity returned to growth in July, with the PMI rising to 51.9. Climate Finance: Mongolia and the IFC agreed to strengthen climate-risk management in banking supervision. Crypto Security: BlackRock, Coinbase and others formed a $15m Bitcoin Security Consortium focused on quantum-era protection. Retail Demand Shift (UK): UK retail sales rose in June, but retailers warn Middle East risks and household budget strain could bite ahead. Tourism Incentives (Dubai): Dubai launched a “Dubai Invite” scheme offering residents benefits worth up to £610 to bring visitors back.

Global Air Industry Leadership: IATA appointed Pakistani-Swiss economist Saadia Zahidi as its next director general, the first woman in the role, starting Nov 1, 2026—an inflection point as airlines face tech and geopolitics. Creator Economy Cost Cuts: Patreon will lay off 93 staff (about 20%), citing major market change over the past six months and the need to cut costs while continuing to support creators. Digital Payments Push vs Cash Reality (Morocco): Morocco’s central bank says cash in circulation jumped 18.5% in 2025 to 491bn dirhams, warning heavy cash use raises tax-evasion and illicit-flow risks. AI and the New Commerce Stack: Coinbase will let Business customers receive USDC payments directly from AI agents, betting on an “agentic economy” where software buys. Healthcare Economics Meets Policy: A Medicare payment debate is intensifying as CMS proposes further physician pay cuts for 2027, while outpatient surgery centers argue they save Medicare billions. Israel-Palestinian Economic Strain: A report says West Bank GDP and jobs have collapsed since Oct 7, pointing to withheld revenues, banking restrictions, and movement barriers. Ghana Fiscal Politics: Ghana’s mid-year budget review sparked pushback, with economist Prof. Godfred Bokpin disputing claims of spending and arguing investment for job-rich growth is lagging. Retail Pressure in the US: Albertsons shares fell sharply after weaker forecasts and a shift toward price investments amid cautious consumers.

Aviation Incentives: Nepal extended fee waivers and discounts for airlines flying international routes via Pokhara and Gautam Buddha airports through mid-September 2028, aiming to boost passenger turnout and unlock new services like Flydubai’s Dubai–Pokhara launch. Climate & Cost of Living: A UK study links June’s heatwave to about £1.15bn in lost economic output, including millions of lost working hours and reduced productivity. Foreign Capital Watch: India’s RBI says FDI and FPI inflows stayed positive in recent months, with domestic demand and industrial/services activity supporting resilience through June. AI Security: A warning from Deloitte Cyber Indonesia says banks risk undermining AI fraud defenses if governance and security controls lag behind faster deployment. South Africa Rates: Markets brace for the Reserve Bank’s next decision as inflation hits 5% and oil risks raise the odds of a bigger-than-usual hike. Energy Transition in Mining: Kumba Iron Ore signed a 20-year renewable power deal for its Sishen mine, targeting lower costs and emissions. Real Estate Pulse: Miami-Dade logged its strongest June in three years, with home sales up 14.3% year-on-year. South Korea Growth: South Korea’s Q2 GDP rose 0.6% on quarter, powered by semiconductor exports and faster IP investment. Digital Divide: unconnected.org and Q-KON partnered to expand satellite connectivity across underserved areas in Sub-Saharan Africa.