AGP Executive Report

China’s Data Economy: The country’s three major telecom operators have each invested 4.5 billion yuan for a 15% stake in a new 30-billion-yuan state-backed data group, which will consolidate data from major state firms and support AI development. UK-EU Trade: A draft deal to remove food-export checks could bring the UK economy £5.1 billion a year, though Britain would align with EU standards. Markets and Banking: State Bank of India’s quarterly profit rose 14% to 23,038 crore rupees, while Indian gold demand fell 29% as high prices curbed purchases. Hong Kong Growth: The economy expanded 5.2% year on year in the third quarter, its strongest pace in five years. Türkiye’s Fund Repayments: Payments to investors in funds under liquidation reached 97.3 billion liras, covering nearly 248,000 people. US Affordability: Voters continue to cite prices and household costs as major concerns despite a strong economy.

Retail Outlook: New Zealand retailers are showing their strongest confidence in two years: 75.1% expect to meet or beat fourth-quarter targets, nearly double the average of the previous eight quarters. Election Economics: Affordability and inflation are major concerns for US midterm voters, with the war in Iran adding uncertainty over prices and global markets. Prices and Debt: Pakistan’s inflation eased to 9.6% year over year in October, though prices rose 1.1% from September; Nepal’s public debt topped Rs3 trillion, or 45.59% of GDP. Energy Markets: Oil fell more than 7% as hopes for US-Iran talks lifted expectations of steadier crude supplies. Investment: ClearFlow Metalworks plans a $28 million Kentucky aluminum plant, expected to create 50 jobs.

Regional Investment: Malaysia and Singapore’s special economic zone logged RM88.83 billion in approved investments through June 2026, with 45% realised and projects expected to create 28,755 jobs. Australia Outlook: Commonwealth Bank expects growth to slow to 1% by mid-2027, citing inflation, higher rates and energy costs; unemployment is forecast to peak at 5.1%. Indonesia’s Momentum: Manufacturing activity climbed to its strongest level since March 2024, with the PMI at 54 and a $10.61 billion trade surplus for January–September. Global Industry: Eurozone factories continued to expand in October, but higher energy costs and supply disruptions are squeezing margins and adding to inflation pressures. Central Asia Trade: Kazakhstan’s trade with CAREC countries rose 14.4% in 2025 to $8.8 billion, as officials push to improve regional transport links and ease cross-border trade.

Monetary Policy: The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates to 4% on Thursday as energy costs threaten to push inflation higher, while signaling that further increases are not guaranteed. Exports and Households: South Korea’s exports surged 93.7% in October, led by semiconductors, but weak consumption and falling retail sales show the boom has yet to reach many households. China’s Banks: The country’s five largest state-owned lenders posted quarterly profit growth of 6% to 11%, their strongest in years, as margins stabilized despite weak credit demand and a slowing economy. Growth Outlook: Fitch Solutions sees Ghana expanding nearly 6% this year, but forecasts growth easing to 4.7% in 2027 as inflation rises and tighter credit weighs on demand. Global Trade: South-South exports reached $6.8 trillion in 2025, highlighting the growing economic ties among developing countries and the importance of resilient trade links. Business Confidence: UK business leaders’ confidence weakened after the Budget, with revenue, investment and hiring expectations all falling in a post-Budget survey.

Tech Deal: India’s Affle will acquire Israeli ad-tech firm Perion for about $420 million, a 34.5% premium to its October 30 share price; the deal is expected to close in early 2027, subject to approvals. Trade and AI: South Korean exports jumped 93.7% year over year in October to $115.28 billion, led by semiconductor shipments that surged 259.4% amid AI demand. India’s Demand: GST collections rose 23% to more than ₹2.31 lakh crore in October, the second-highest monthly total on record, with festive spending lifting domestic receipts. Jordan’s Industry: A new chemicals-sector plan targets exports above JD2 billion by 2029, alongside lower energy costs and higher productivity. Banking Links: Syria is seeking to restore ties with European banks and expand trade finance and payment channels, while officials discuss steps to strengthen financial transparency.

AI-Driven Trade: South Korea’s exports jumped 93.7% in October to $115.28 billion, their strongest growth since 1974, as semiconductor shipments surged on AI investment. The rise was partly boosted by an extra working day, while the Bank of Korea warns a slowdown in tech spending could hit exports and growth. Rate Pressure: Australia’s central bank is widely expected to raise rates after underlying inflation reached 3.7%, keeping price pressures above target for a 20th straight quarter. Uneven Growth: The eurozone expanded 0.4% in the third quarter, but France’s economy contracted 0.1% and Canada’s stalled, underscoring the uneven outlook across major economies. G20 discussions also highlighted energy security and diversified supply chains as priorities amid global shocks.

Regional Investment: Malaysia is considering a December launch for the Johor–Singapore Special Economic Zone master plan, with both countries’ prime ministers set to witness it. The country’s courier industry says it contributes RM6.9 billion to the digital economy. India’s Economy: The World Bank says about 496 million people moved above the lower-middle-income poverty line from 2011 to 2023, but wage gaps remain wide and youth unemployment has risen. Global Growth: The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter, powered by consumer spending and AI investment, while persistent inflation complicates the Fed’s next moves. Europe’s expansion slowed to 0.4%; Germany grew modestly, but France’s economy contracted. Canada’s economy stalled for a second month in August. China and Rates: China’s factory activity weakened as export orders fell. In India, analysts expect further RBI rate increases after its first hike in nearly four years, citing strong activity but flagging weak consumer confidence and below-normal monsoon rainfall.

AI and Markets: Intel shares plunged as much as 30% on weak guidance, adding to a tech sell-off even as AI investment helped drive U.S. growth. Goldman Sachs also found that industries with greater AI adoption had weaker employment growth, though the data does not prove AI caused job losses. U.S. Economy: GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, but housing and food consumed nearly half of household spending in 2025, underscoring affordability pressures. Europe: Eurozone growth reached 0.4% in Q3, but France contracted 0.1%, Italy stagnated and Germany grew 0.2%; high energy costs cloud the outlook. Canada: GDP was flat for a second straight month in August, missing forecasts. South Asia: Growth is projected near 7%, with infrastructure and structural reforms supporting resilience, while energy dependence leaves the region exposed to price shocks.

United States: GDP grew at a brisk 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, powered by consumer spending and AI investment, but September inflation rose to 3.6%, complicating the outlook for interest rates. Europe: The eurozone grew 0.4% in Q3, helped by Ireland’s 5.5% expansion, while France contracted 0.1% and Germany managed just 0.2% growth. Canada: The economy stalled for a second month in August, and an early estimate points to a 0.1% contraction in September, putting Q3 growth below the central bank’s forecast. India: The IMF sees growth of 7% in both 2026 and 2027, making the country a major driver of global expansion as Western economies slow. China: Services spending rose 5% in the first three quarters, outpacing goods sales and underscoring a shift in consumer demand.

U.S. Growth: The economy expanded at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter, led by consumer spending and AI investment, but inflation at 3.7% complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move. India’s Outlook: The Finance Ministry projects 7.35% growth in the July–September quarter, with officials saying momentum could continue through fiscal 2027. China’s Industry: Industrial sales rose 7.4% in the first nine months, while advanced manufacturing grew 12.3% in the third quarter, highlighting the shift toward high-tech production. Household Pressure: Japanese shoppers are trading convenience for cheaper bulk groceries as prices rise; convenience-store visits fell 3.8% in September from a year earlier. Iraq’s Crisis: The IMF has begun talks on a new lending program as war fallout and weak non-oil revenues strain public finances; it forecasts a 16% economic contraction this year. Mineral Processing: Tanzania is pressing investors to process minerals locally, aiming to lift mining’s share of GDP from 10.3% in 2025 to 15% by 2030.

U.S. Growth and Inflation: GDP grew at a 3.4% annual pace in Q3, led by consumer spending and AI investment, but September inflation rose to 3.6% year over year. The Fed held rates steady, with price pressures keeping a December hike in focus. Asia’s Momentum: Malaysia’s economy grew 5.3% in Q3, and officials expect full-year growth to top 5%. China grew 4.5%, but net exports drove 39% of Q3 growth as weak domestic demand and falling investment weighed. Europe’s Outlook: Ireland reported 5.5% Q3 growth, largely from multinational-led industry and technology, while its domestic-focused GNI* measure gives a more grounded picture. The ECB paused rate increases as eurozone inflation reached 3.8%, citing energy costs and uncertainty; December is the next key review. South Africa’s Revised Picture: A GDP rebasing puts the economy 4.9% larger than previously estimated, reflecting updated sector weights and broader accounting for informal and illegal activity.

U.S. Rates and Trade: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4% amid persistent inflation, with two officials dissenting. Separately, September’s goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion as AI-related investment helped push imports to a record, potentially weighing on third-quarter growth. Asia’s Growth Mix: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, driven by semiconductor exports, while domestic spending fell. Taiwan’s economy minister says the AI boom should benefit traditional industries as well as tech firms. Trade Pressures: Nepal’s exports surged 57% in the first quarter to Rs114.28 billion, but its trade deficit widened 34.7% to Rs532.5 billion. Canada’s Economy: Output grew 0.8% in the second quarter, the country’s strongest quarterly gain since the trade war began.

UK Outlook: Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget raised taxes on banks and online retailers, while the fiscal buffer fell to £15 billion. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1% from 1.6%, citing inflation and the Iran war. Iran Crisis: The economy faces a contraction of more than 25%, with soaring prices and wartime job losses squeezing households and businesses. Official data put September inflation at 89.8% year on year. Digital Growth: Malaysia’s digital economy is forecast to reach US$48 billion in 2026, up 20% and matching Vietnam for the region’s fastest growth. Industry Investment: The World Bank approved $485 million to help Turkish manufacturers adopt green and digital technologies. Asia’s Momentum: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, powered by semiconductor exports, though household spending fell. India’s industrial output growth also slowed to 6.7% in September.

Inflation and Rates: Economists have raised inflation forecasts for 31 of 50 economies for 2027, with energy costs and Middle East conflict keeping price pressures alive. Australia’s hotter-than-expected inflation has strengthened expectations of a rate rise, while the Fed is widely expected to hold rates as investors watch for clues on its next move. Growth: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, powered by chip exports and investment, but household spending fell for the first time in nearly four years. Cyprus grew 3.3%, led by consumption and investment. China: The growth gap between provinces widened, though nine of the 10 largest provincial economies matched or outpaced national growth of 4.6%. Supply Chains: The U.S. produced just 300 tonnes of rare-earth magnets in 2025 against consumption of about 48,000 tonnes, leaving manufacturers exposed to potential Chinese export curbs. Consumers: U.S. confidence rebounded in October as gas prices eased, but remained on a longer-term downward trend.

Housing and Budgets: Morocco’s 2027 budget proposes affordable rentals for young workers and students, with public land and private investment intended to ease housing shortages. AI and Business: AI ranks as APAC CEOs’ top challenge, cited by 94% in a survey, while 78% say their organisations are ready to adapt; Swedbank is cutting about 500 jobs across its markets and warns AI could bring further reductions. Household Costs: Nigeria’s finance minister says some families spend up to 120% of their income on food, underscoring how falling headline inflation has yet to ease pressure from food prices. Growth Signals: U.S. core capital-goods shipments rose 1.2% in September, while South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter on strong chip exports, despite weaker consumer spending. Investment: India’s private capital-expenditure pipeline climbed 39% year over year to 99.7 lakh crore rupees, concentrated in manufacturing and electricity. UK Outlook: Business distress has reached a two-decade high ahead of the budget, adding to concern over costs and the country’s growth prospects.

South Korea: GDP grew 1% in the third quarter, beating forecasts as chip exports and equipment investment surged. Private consumption fell 0.2%, highlighting the uneven recovery. AI Finance: Anthropic has filed its IPO prospectus for a potential $100 billion raise, a major test of investor appetite for the costly AI boom. Singapore’s Workforce: The retirement age will rise to 65 and the re-employment age to 70 in 2029, as the government seeks to retain older workers amid labour constraints. Manufacturing Investment: Penn State won a $39.9 million federal grant to build a regional manufacturing and workforce hub in Pennsylvania, with potential industry investment bringing the project’s total impact close to $200 million. Nigeria’s Economic Policy: The government is considering legislation to protect reforms from reversal by future administrations, aiming to improve policy consistency and investor confidence.