AGP Executive Report

Monetary Policy & FX: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas should keep tightening to rein in inflation, GlobalSource Partners says, warning markets aren’t fully convinced by guidance as the peso slides. Growth Outlook: Philippines economists at UA&P see growth rebounding to above 4% in Q4 on a catch-up in infrastructure, despite a tepid Q3 and flood/spending delays. Markets: Manila stocks snapped a four-day drop as manufacturing activity improved, with the PMI rising to 54.9 in August. Digital Economy: Saudi Arabia’s comms minister starts a US visit for G20 digital-economy talks, aiming to pull AI investment and strengthen digital infrastructure. Trade & Tariffs: Wisconsin ginseng farmers say tariffs—especially on exports to China—are squeezing margins amid higher input costs. US Rates & Debt: Bloomberg reports traders scrambling to hedge Treasuries as deficit and inflation fears push yields higher. UK Economy: The British Chambers of Commerce warns the UK is stuck in the “slow lane” as investment weakens. Asia Workcation Boom: Bangkok tops the world workcation ranking for 2026, beating Tokyo and others. Energy/Infrastructure Shock: Grand Canyon flooding threatens tourism revenue as a washed-out pipeline shuts lodging at the South Rim. Business & Investment: Navi Mumbai’s Kamdhenu Realities buys a 4-acre Thane-Belapur plot for ₹150 crore to build a Grade-A commercial park.

India Growth Watch: India’s economy kept its momentum with 7.8% GDP growth in Q1 FY27, with manufacturing up 9.2% and services/professional services rising strongly, even as global risks from the Iran conflict and El Niño pressure markets. Markets & FX: Indian equities ended near flat as oil and rate fears lingered; the rupee strengthened above 95 per dollar on RBI dollar-selling and improved sentiment. Digital Payments: UPI hit a new record in August with 24.51 billion transactions, showing volume growth outpacing value. EV Jobs & Policy: A study says India’s EV push could support 21.7 million jobs by 2040, but net gains depend on local battery-cell production. Energy & Infrastructure: Indian Railways approved ₹233 crore electronic signalling upgrades at 21 Bihar stations and a ₹272 crore freight bypass line to cut bottlenecks. Regional Business Climate: Spain’s Community of Madrid says a draft data-center rule could make new projects “practically impossible,” warning it may roll back licensed sites. Nigeria Macro: Nigeria reported 4.43% real GDP growth in Q2 2026, led by services and improved oil output. Transport Costs: India’s highway toll hikes are set to nearly double next year, squeezing consumers and logistics.

Canada Investment Push: Prime Minister Mark Carney named Dominic Barton chair and Gurinder Grewal CEO of Invest in Canada, aiming to catalyse C$1 trillion in investment over five years and target sectors like critical minerals, AI and infrastructure. Digital Tax Fight: Belgian testimony warns a proposed “digital permanent establishment” corporate tax would mimic Europe’s digital services taxes and repeat economic and legal mistakes. US Policy & Growth: Tariff refunds are estimated to add about 0.2 points to US Q3 GDP, but the broader outlook remains clouded by Iran-war-driven costs. Energy & Biofuels: EPA granted $1.76bn in small-refinery renewable fuel credit exemptions while signaling future shifts to larger refiners, risking new industry tensions. Trade War Pressure: Trump threatens to hit Iran “hard” as strikes resume, keeping markets focused on energy and sanctions spillovers. Nigeria Jobs Focus: NESG says Nigeria’s growth must translate into millions of quality jobs, warning the labour challenge is structural. Asia FX Watch: MUFG flags the Philippine peso as Asia’s weakest link as US yields stay elevated. Tech & Capital Markets: Seraphim launched a New Space ETF, while MAS commits $220m over three years to fintech innovation.

India Growth: India’s economy grew 7.8% in April-June, beating expectations and reinforcing the “growth engine” narrative. Markets: Sensex and Nifty slipped as weakness in IT, metal, and realty weighed on sentiment, with investors watching US-Iran tensions and crude. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil prices jumped after fresh US-Iran strikes raised Strait of Hormuz supply fears, while India also mulls replacing legacy Chinese telecom gear. Corporate & Finance: Maruti Suzuki lifted five-year capex to ₹77,500 crore; Piramal Finance raised ₹3,850 crore via QIP plus promoter infusion; Zee Entertainment plunged as lenders challenge NCLT approval in Subhash Chandra’s repayment plan. Policy & Compliance: ITR filings crossed 7.5 crore ahead of the Aug 31 deadline; India’s Semicon 2.0 scheme was notified with eligibility and sops. Consumer & Food: Zomato banned analogue cheese/paneer dishes and is restructuring customer support, while ex-mill sugar prices fell ~30% but retail lagged. Global Watch: Pakistan said it’s shifting from aid to trade and investment; NZ economists flagged gradual pressure on mortgage rates as the RBNZ outlook firms.

NZX Governance Shock: New Zealand’s NZ RegCo suspended Winton Land shares after board resignations left the company short on independent director and audit committee requirements. KiwiSaver Fees Debate: New research for Simplicity says higher KiwiSaver fees haven’t delivered higher after-fee returns over 10 years, pushing the “pay more, get more” assumption under pressure. RBNZ Rate Call: All five major bank economists expect a cash rate rise to 2.75% on Wednesday, signaling the end of falling borrowing costs. Philippines Inflation Watch: August inflation may have eased but likely stayed above the BSP target, with monsoon crop damage lifting food prices even as transport costs cooled. Peso Pressure: Economists warn a weaker peso beyond 62 per dollar could feed cost-push inflation for households and manufacturers. Nigeria Fuel Rules: Economist Muda Yusuf urges NMDPRA to publish verified fuel supply gaps before granting import licences, as Dangote pushes back on petrol import approvals. China Data Economy: China’s data industry hit 6.78tn yuan in 2025, with AI and data services driving growth. Kuwait Property Reform: Progressive fees on undeveloped plots and enforcement of a 2023 law are credited with breaking real-estate stagnation and reducing plot monopolies. Climate Risk Warning: New analysis says climate models may underestimate how fast warming thresholds could be crossed, shrinking the carbon budget faster than expected. Ghana 24-Hour Economy: A commentary warns Ghana’s 24-hour push could become “flashy construction” without cold storage, power, security, and productivity beyond neon markets. El Salvador Infrastructure: Bids opened for the Apopa Bypass, a 4.8km, multi-bridge project aimed at easing congestion and improving northern connectivity.

Circular Agri-Food Innovation (Malaysia): Malaysia’s Pineapple Industry Board launched Pinasweet (pineapple-based low-GI sweetener) and LiqoFas (liquid fertiliser from pineapple waste), pushing value creation from agri by-products. Public Health & Productivity (GCC): A study estimates chronic diseases cost the Gulf about $50bn a year in lost productivity and treatment, arguing prevention is an economic policy. AI & Workforce (US/UK): Newman University named Bekah Selby-Leach associate director of its Institute for AI & the Common Good, aiming to align AI training with real jobs. UK Welfare Costs (UK): IFS economist Paul Johnson urged Andy Burnham to rein in Personal Independence Payment via tighter criteria and better work support, sparking backlash from claimants. Food Prices & Demand (UK): Shoppers are shifting toward beans, lentils and tofu as meat sales soften, while some fake-meat categories keep sliding. Energy & Inflation Signals (India/Philippines): India’s gas plants helped stabilise the grid during April–May heat demand; in the Philippines, diesel and gasoline are set for a Sept. 1 rollback. Sanctions & Trade (Iran/US): Reports say US sanctions are widening beyond Iran itself, but analysts warn political outcomes are less certain than economic strain. Business & Finance (India): HNGIL moved Bira 91 maker B9 Beverages toward insolvency over payment default. Policy & Timekeeping (India): India notified rules to standardise Indian Standard Time nationwide under “One Nation, One Time.” Trade Openness (Cuba): Cuba is loosening controls to let private firms trade directly with foreign businesses, as reforms begin to take effect.

Sanctions Pressure on Iran: Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian admitted U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade are cutting exports and imports by 25% to 35%, with officials warning inflation and even fuel pricing may need adjustment as trade shrinks. U.S. “Economic D-Day”: The U.S. Treasury is expanding secondary sanctions and targeting Iran-linked lifelines tied to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping—moves critics say hit ordinary Iranians as much as the regime. Armenia’s Economic Path: Armenia’s finance minister says EU accession is “not currently on the agenda” because standards must be aligned first, while also projecting 5%–5.5% growth potential and assessing risks from possible Russian gas price changes. Europe Growth Snapshot: France’s economy was flat in Q2 (0.0%), with exports rebounding and household consumption improving, but external shocks and budget pressures remain. Sweden Rebound: Sweden’s GDP rose 1.6% in Q2 and 3.3% year-on-year, supported by investment, exports and steadier consumer confidence. Critical Minerals Geopolitics: A new series argues critical minerals are shifting power toward countries that control refining, manufacturing and integration—not just mining. Private Credit Risk: A report warns private equity’s “zombie” exit backlog is starting to strain banks and could spill into the wider economy. Energy Costs & Grid Reform: Minnesota is moving toward virtual power plants to better manage distributed resources and curb rising electricity costs. Pakistan Tax Simplification: Pakistan launched the “Asaan Tax Scheme” to simplify retail tax registration and reduce tax friction for shopkeepers via a mobile app and a 1% turnover-based levy.

Disaster Recovery: Nepal’s Finance Minister says rebuilding after this week’s Himalayan floods could cost $4–$5bn, nearly a tenth of the economy, with losses hitting remittances, tourism and hydropower. US Fiscal Strain: Analysts warn getting US debt down is “unrealistic” as borrowing costs rise and interest burdens crowd budgets. Inflation & Policy: A US inflation “death by a thousand cuts” narrative grows as prices stay above target, while Fed-watchers debate how fast rates should move. Energy & Geopolitics: Trump touts a Venezuela oil agreement giving the US control over 65bn barrels, as Washington intensifies pressure on Iran. AI Infrastructure Jobs: India’s data-centre build-out is set to drive investment, but the biggest employment gains may come from the wider ecosystem around cooling, grids and digital infrastructure. Venture Capital for Hardware: a16z raises $1.1bn for its Machine Age Fund to back AI chips, networking, storage and data centres. Regional Trade Integration: Oman and Saudi Arabia plan to accelerate economic and industrial integration at a Salalah meeting, focusing on supply chains and non-oil exports. Healthcare Regulation: India’s Bombay High Court pushes Maharashtra FDA to withdraw Cipla’s licence cancellation order and issue a fresh notice. Retail & Township Economy: Clicks launches KwaMakhi, targeting South Africa’s R900bn township FMCG market and sparking debate over who benefits.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: The U.S. tariff push on Canadian goods is triggering retaliation and raising recession fears, with economists warning costs could hit households and jobs quickly. Fed Watch: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inflation alarm is pushing rate-hike bets higher, lifting bond yields and rattling markets even as stocks end the week mixed. Canada Growth & Policy: StatCan says Q2 GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized pace, but Ottawa is also funding quantum manufacturing and worker/business support to blunt tariff shocks. Nigeria Governance & Finance: President Tinubu orders a forensic audit of IPPIS and federal systems after “fake agencies” and ghost-worker findings, aiming to restore payroll integrity and free fiscal space. Armenia Money Flows: A “Zangezur gambit” analysis highlights how remittances and Russian tourism dominate Armenia’s inbound cash picture. Food & Energy Prices: India’s CNG prices rise in Delhi; Mumbai wholesale milk prices jump ahead of the festive season. Local Economy Signals: Pennsylvania’s Little League World Series is projected to inject about $40M; Glasgow tourism spending surged to £2.74B. Business Moves: Lexicon Bank expands leadership; Raise Financial hires ex-Upstox exec Abhishek Singh to lead Pluto Insurance.

Disaster Recovery: Nepal’s finance minister says flash-flood rebuilding will cost “at least a few billion dollars,” as a temporary debris dam raises fears of more flooding and cross-border trade disruption. Energy & Infrastructure: Four workers were rescued from Nepal’s Rasuwagadhi Hydropower Project, while teams prepare for further rescues at other flood-affected sites. AI & Data Economy: China reports its data industry hit 6.78 trillion yuan in 2025, with dataset building accelerating AI growth. Healthcare Investment: LeapFrog plans $80m–$100m in India healthcare over two years, betting on insurance coverage and rising demand for diagnostics and specialty care. Local Skills & Jobs: Sabah, Malaysia, pushes TVET to build homegrown talent for manufacturing, construction, energy, tourism, agriculture, and digital roles. Trade & Tourism Impact: New York’s hotel industry warns Canada-U.S. trade tensions could cut Canadian visitor numbers and hit thousands of jobs. Public Policy & Workforce: Singapore will hire 1,800 more infant care educators by 2030 as fees fall to S$300 a month per child. Corporate Markets: MoneyHero schedules Q2 2026 results for Sept 11. Capital Markets Regulation: India’s SEBI is considering tighter rules for smaller firms’ public offers, including institutional investor quotas and higher profit requirements. Defense Procurement: India signed to buy U.S. Javelin anti-tank missile systems, expanding defense-industry cooperation.

Fed Watch: Boston Fed’s Susan Collins called the latest U.S. inflation read “mixed,” saying goods/services tied to market forces look closer to the 2% goal, while Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack argued rates must stay restrictive because inflation isn’t cooling fast enough. Japan Macro: Japan kept its view of moderate recovery but warned earthquake and heavy rain could disrupt output, especially around autos and semiconductors. Regional Business Mood: West Midlands confidence fell in August as firms turned more cautious on trading prospects. Trade Pressure: Georgia farmers and economists warned retaliatory U.S.-Canada tariffs will hit consumers via higher costs and supply-chain disruption. Canada Infrastructure: Canada opened the CANXPORT logistics facility at Prince Rupert, backed by nearly $50m, to boost export capacity. Cyber & Health Supply Chains: Boston Scientific said a cyberattack caused a global operational disruption, affecting order processing and raising patient-care risk. Defense Tech Jobs: TurbineOne opened T1 MachineWorks in Maine to speed frontline AI and autonomy development, targeting 20+ jobs over five years. Local Growth & Culture: Lebanon and UAE signed an MoU to deepen trade/investment ties; Canada’s culture and heritage ministers met to set a new five-year framework.

Central Banking: The Philippines’ BSP raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5% for a third straight tightening, citing easing inflation but warning about oil volatility and El Niño risks. AI & Markets: Nvidia forecast about 70% sales growth, reinforcing that the AI infrastructure buildout is still accelerating; Singapore firms are also recalibrating hiring as AI reshapes productivity. Digital Tax & Trade: Azerbaijan moved to register major non-resident digital providers for VAT, including OpenAI, Zoom and Zoho, as it tightens e-commerce tax rules. Sovereign Debt Risk: France has overtaken Italy as the biggest worry in European bond markets, with investors focused on deficits, debt and election uncertainty. Africa Jobs Focus: The World Bank says Ghana’s recovery is real but must be turned into quality jobs via fiscal discipline, revenue gains and transport reforms. Energy & Industry: TotalEnergies completed its exit from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project; BPCL plans to lift Kochi refinery capacity to 17 MMTPA. Local Economy: Michigan gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson toured a housing project and pushed permit streamlining to cut housing costs.

Canada–U.S. Trade Tensions: Trump’s claim that the U.S. “doesn’t need Canada” clashes with the reality that about 4 million barrels of Canadian crude flow south daily, alongside key metals and supply-chain inputs—raising stakes for tariffs and jobs on both sides. Housing & Local Economy: Massachusetts’ Westford will convert a long-vacant hotel into 300 rental homes using $3M in state tax-credit funding, part of a broader push to turn underused commercial sites into housing. Health & Innovation: The FDA cleared Revolution Medicines’ pancreatic cancer drug Rasonque, a targeted option after trial results showed major survival gains versus chemotherapy. AI & Jobs: Bill Gates warns AI could rapidly replace white-collar work and cut job creation unless policy keeps pace. Macro Outlook: Singapore’s growth is “strong but narrow and uneven,” with headline GDP not yet translating into broad employment gains. Policy & Food Costs: U.S. farm groups criticized Trump’s 90-day beef import plan, saying it may lower prices short-term while harming long-term cattle producers. Long-Run Growth Risks: Philippines economists project growth slowing to about 5.1% by 2040 and 3.6% by 2050 due to productivity and sector constraints.

Philippines Growth Outlook: Capital Economics warns the Philippines faces a “slow and bumpy” recovery, forecasting 2026 GDP growth around 3% amid flood-control corruption fallout and Middle East-linked drag. New Zealand Election Economics: National’s Nicola Willis argues Labour’s approach has muddled Reserve Bank decision-making, while Labour’s Barbara Edmonds focuses on purchasing power in the cost-of-living fight. UK Labor Reform Costs: CIPD says guaranteed-hours/zero-hours reforms could raise employer costs and trigger redundancies unless key details (like reference periods) are negotiated. Armenia Export Push: Deputy Economy Minister Anushik Avetyan met Dutch trade officials to expand Armenia’s dried-fruit exports into the Netherlands and broader Benelux via missions and B2B meetings. IMF Macro Mix: IMF chief Georgieva flags a global economy split between oil-shock pressure and AI-driven investment gains, with developing countries lagging. Iran Sanctions Shock: The rial slides past 2m per dollar as the US escalates an “economic D-Day” campaign, squeezing everyday essentials and raising risks for trade partners. India Trade & Rates: RBI says India remains resilient as monsoon improves and capital inflows recover; engineering exports rose 18% in July. Nepal Flood Disruption: Rasuwa floods damage bridges, roads and transport, with customs staff reported missing and freight operations hit. Circular Economy Deal: Pirelli and partners launch tire-to-tire recycling in Europe, turning end-of-life tires into inputs for new tires and chemicals. Business & Jobs: New Jersey lost ~26,000 jobs in July, while India’s IT services growth is expected to stay near 6% through FY27 as AI reshapes demand.

El Niño Watch: The U.S. National Weather Service says there’s a 90%+ chance of a very strong “Super” El Niño, with potential knock-on effects for supply chains, energy markets, and inflation. Care Economy Pressure: A new personal account highlights how Medicare and Medicaid gaps leave families scrambling for long-term in-home care, turning caregivers into full-time medical managers. Healthcare Staffing & AI Pay: Surveys show hospitals are locking in advanced practice providers (97% plan to retain or expand), while many physicians expect AI to boost compensation—raising questions about workload and who captures value. Consumer Mood Softens: The Conference Board reports U.S. consumer confidence slipping to 89.4 in August as cost-of-living worries persist. Trade War Fallout: Canada-U.S. tariff disputes keep heating up, with restaurants warning of cost and supply-chain pressure and economists warning integrated supply chains make price impacts harder to avoid. Japan Rates: A Reuters poll says the Bank of Japan is likely to move faster and hike again in September as yen pressure and conflict-linked inflation risks linger. Local Economy Hits: New Mexico’s healthcare affordability fund faces projected shortfalls as federal support changes and premium hikes squeeze exchange enrollees. Energy & Business: Meridian Energy forecasts profit recovery after drought losses and promises residential price increases stay below inflation, while Morocco’s TAQA reports revenue down but capital spending rising.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a new “Economic D-Day” aimed at choking Iran’s economy by targeting not just sanctioned entities but the networks moving money and goods, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, with warnings that facilitators could be cut off from the US dollar system. Geopolitical Risk to Energy Markets: Iran’s oil chief says production and exports are holding despite US naval pressure, while markets brace for potential blowback as sanctions intensify. Germany Growth Update: Germany’s economy grew 0.3% in Q2, slightly faster than first estimated, driven mainly by stronger exports, though drought-related low water levels could weigh on transport and industrial output in Q3. US Debt and Rates: Commentary highlights rising pressure on long-dated Treasurys and the risk that higher yields could dampen growth, as policymakers try to manage “bond vigilantes.” Digital Finance Inclusion (India): An ILO-NCAER brief finds women nearly match men in bank-account ownership but lag sharply in digital skills and credit access, limiting participation in India’s platform economy. Canada Trade Uncertainty: New tariff moves on Canadian goods are raising price fears and adding to cross-border economic uncertainty, with local businesses watching construction and rebuilding costs. Business & Industry Moves: Kiwibank growth via brokers, Malaysia’s data-centre investment push, and corporate updates from Cambrex and RBC point to continued dealmaking and capacity expansion.