AGP Executive Report

Global Outlook: At the Bangkok IMF–World Bank meetings, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said AI investment is helping keep global growth near 3%, offsetting the drag from energy shocks; policymakers are also grappling with rising debt and inflation. Nigeria Investment: The World Bank plans to mobilize up to $5.79 billion in private financing for Nigeria in fiscal 2026, targeting sectors including agriculture, telecoms and small businesses, with about 850,000 jobs expected. Sri Lanka’s Recovery: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said the country is open to a future IMF agreement, but warned that fuel import costs and shortfalls in foreign reserves leave it exposed to external shocks. India Prices: Retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, driven by higher food prices. Industrial Growth: Gujarat is developing incentives to move about 5,000 factories from crowded city districts to planned industrial estates, a shift aimed at easing urban pressure and supporting manufacturing.

Economic Policy: Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel for research underpinning models used by central banks and governments to manage economic shocks. China: Third-quarter indicators point to firmer consumption and investment, with spending on AI and other frontier industries surging. India: September inflation rose to 5.54%, near the top of the RBI’s target band, strengthening expectations of further rate hikes; stocks fell despite a sharp rupee gain. Development Finance: The Islamic Development Bank agreed to provide Benin with €326 million for road upgrades and climate-resilient agriculture. Outlook: Armenia’s economy is forecast to grow 5.8% this year, according to the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. Agriculture: US farmer sentiment weakened as rising input costs weighed on financial expectations, with a record 52% citing them as their biggest concern.

Fuel Shock: Record energy costs are feeding inflation and tightening financial conditions. US diesel remains 71% above a year ago despite easing from its peak, while the IEA has urged members to assess further diesel releases. Global Outlook: IMF and World Bank meetings opened in Bangkok with inflation, AI and climate on the agenda. Borrowing costs are rising: the US 10-year yield topped 5.3%, and Japan’s moved above 3% for the first time since 1996. Nigeria: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele warned that restoring fuel subsidies could cost ₦16–20 trillion a year and send the naira to ₦3,000 per dollar within months. The government is also targeting overlapping rules and fees that raise business costs. Trade Pressures: Pakistan’s textile exporters warn that weak overseas demand, higher freight and rising input costs threaten goods exports, while the tax authority exceeded its first-quarter collection target.

Global Outlook: IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok are set to focus on the Middle East war, energy costs and debt pressures, as higher diesel and fertilizer prices threaten growth. China: High-frequency data points to improving third-quarter momentum, with stronger consumer spending and a sharp rise in investment in AI, robotics and other frontier industries. United States: September headline inflation is forecast to accelerate on higher gasoline prices, while softer core inflation may give the Federal Reserve reason to hold rates steady. United Kingdom: Economists expect the economy to have contracted in August, putting added pressure on the government ahead of its budget. Ethiopia: Foreign-exchange reforms are increasing price uncertainty and working-capital strains for businesses reliant on imported inputs, even as policymakers seek long-term stability and investment.

Malaysia’s Budget: Economists say expanded tax relief and lower rates could boost household spending and support growth. Global Trade: Trade reached a record $35 trillion despite wars, while UNCTAD warns the AI boom is bringing financial risks. Jobs: Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, contrary to forecasts; U.S. jobless claims remain near a 57-year low, but hiring is subdued. U.S. Debt: The CBO director says growth alone is unlikely to stabilize federal finances, with debt projected to rise sharply as a share of GDP. Ukraine’s Economy: Russian strikes have halted operations at Kryvyi Rih’s major steel and mining complex, deepening pressure on local budgets and the country’s battered industry. Malawi’s Minerals: Extraction has begun at the Kangankunde rare-earth mine, as the government seeks investment and more local processing.

Currency Support: India’s RBI will sell dollars to three state-run oil companies from October 12, seeking to ease pressure on the rupee; it also tightened rules on cancelled forex derivatives. Jordan Industry: Amman’s industrial exports rose 6.5% to JD5.98 billion in the first nine months of 2026, while new Aqaba incentives aim to cut manufacturing and shipping costs. Business Growth: Indian retailer DMart reported an 8.5% rise in quarterly profit and 17.8% revenue growth; personal-care brand Nat Habit raised ₹142 crore to expand. Consumer Confidence: U.S. confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, while employers added just 29,000 jobs in September. Global Outlook: UNCTAD expects India to grow 7.3% in 2026 as global trade slows, while the World Bank sees world growth easing to 2.6% amid Middle East tensions. Investment: Oman signed agreements worth more than $1.4 billion across tourism, real estate, education and housing as it pursues economic diversification.

Energy Shock: The Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and push up global fuel costs. Delta says its 2026 fuel bill will rise by about $6 billion from last year and is curbing its profit outlook; Washington is also easing sanctions to allow Russian diesel imports. Jobs and Confidence: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, wiping out its 2026 gains, while US consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 and current-condition readings hit a record low as households face persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs. Debt Pressure: France’s 10-year bond yield reached about 4.9%, its highest since 2002, amid concern over public debt at 119% of GDP and a deficit near 5%. Mongolia: Annual inflation climbed to 12.9% in September, led by food and meat prices, though S&P affirmed the country’s BB- rating with a stable outlook.

Markets and Growth: A global sell-off hit stocks as investors weighed weaker growth, high oil prices and tighter financial conditions. Indian benchmarks fell more than 1%, while major Asian markets also slid. The UN trade body expects global growth to slow to 2.6% this year. Canada’s Jobs: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September for a second monthly decline, pushing unemployment to 6.5%. The losses were concentrated in public services, health care, education and manufacturing, raising pressure on the Bank of Canada ahead of its October 28 rate decision. Malaysia’s Budget: The government plans to lift spending nearly 4% next year to support households and growth. The economy expanded 5.7% in the first half of 2026. Ireland’s Public Services: SIPTU has called a second public-sector strike for October 21, adding to a planned October 14 stoppage as unions seek pay increases to offset rising living costs.

U.S. Jobs: Initial claims stayed below 200,000 for a fourth week, but September payrolls rose by just 29,000, pointing to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market that leaves job seekers with fewer openings. Fuel & Inflation: Nigeria announced a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations, prioritising public transport, as it seeks to cushion rising prices without restoring broad subsidies. In New Zealand, Westpac now expects inflation to reach 4.2% by year-end as fuel costs climb. Global Outlook: Rwanda’s economy grew 9.7% in the first half of 2026, led by industry and services; the central bank forecasts 7.8% growth for the year. The IMF warned that energy shocks, AI demand and record global debt are creating a risky mix for the world economy. Trade & Investment: New Zealand food and fibre exports hit a record $65.2 billion in the year to June, up 8%. Greece opened the Skouries mine, a more than $2 billion project expected to boost copper and gold production and attract further investment.

Investment Reform: Bangladesh is moving to streamline approvals and simplify taxes to attract foreign capital, while weak investment, energy shortages and job losses continue to weigh on its economy. Growth Outlook: Economists warn Trinidad and Tobago faces slowing growth, foreign-exchange shortages and declining energy output; they question the World Bank’s forecast of a 2.5% rebound in 2027 after two years of contraction. Germany: The government raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%, citing economic resilience and demand linked to the AI boom. Global Risks: The IMF says AI investment is supporting growth, but high energy costs and rising public debt leave the world economy exposed to fresh shocks. Indian Markets: Shares tumbled as oil topped $104 a barrel, foreign investor outflows persisted and the RBI’s tighter policy stoked inflation and borrowing-cost concerns.

Global Risks: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that energy shocks could fuel inflation and uncertainty into 2027. Oil remains near $100 a barrel, while refining and fuel supply constraints are pushing up prices. Rates and Growth: India’s central bank raised its repo rate to 5.5%, with further hikes possible as policymakers weigh inflation and global risks. In the U.S., September payroll growth was just 29,000, adding to concerns about a slowing jobs market as Treasury yields top 5%. Credit: Nepal’s banks have more than $1 trillion rupees available to lend, but businesses are holding back amid policy uncertainty and weak confidence. Wealth Gap: The richest 0.1% of U.S. households now average $204 million in wealth, widening the divide even within the top 1%.

Malaysia Budget: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says Friday’s 2027 budget will target living-cost pressures and spread growth more equitably. Global Risks: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that energy shocks, high public debt and an uneven AI investment boom threaten growth, urging cautious monetary policy. India Rates: The Reserve Bank raised its repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%, prompting a market sell-off and raising borrowing-cost concerns; it also lifted its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%. Australia Productivity: Deloitte says growth increasingly relies on population gains rather than worker productivity, which remains below its pre-pandemic level. Tourism: Europe’s travel sector is forecast to grow 3.1% in 2026, ahead of the wider economy, with international visitor spending projected to rise 5.8%. Currency Pressures: Uganda’s central bank says global rates, weaker export prices and strong demand for imports are weighing on the shilling.

Housing & Consumer Sentiment: A UK survey finds 44% of cohabiting homeowners secretly research moves, with mortgage-rate pressure driving “property traitor” behavior. Real Estate Markets: Singapore HDB resale prices rose 0.6% month-on-month in September, while resale volumes fell 10.9%—though million-dollar flat sales hit a new monthly record. Education & Skills: Nigeria’s UNN secured NUC approval for 12 new undergraduate programmes spanning engineering, nuclear science, health, education and IT. Digital Finance Policy: The Digital Sovereignty Alliance’s personal-finance white paper was named a DC Fintech Week 2026 winning research paper, arguing regulation and financial literacy must advance together. Energy & Inflation Politics: Reuters reports Japan is considering a small extra disaster-relief budget; in the US, Trump floated suspending the federal gasoline tax as fuel costs squeeze voters. Global Growth Watch: The World Bank lifted India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% on reforms and strong services/industry momentum. AI & Jobs Debate: Economists push back on Silicon Valley’s AI job-loss warnings, pointing to more targeted impacts on younger workers. Waste-to-Wealth: Qatar is promoting “waste to fuel” technologies to turn food scraps and biomass into alternative energy and new revenue streams.

Emerging Markets & Jobs: Jordan’s GDP grew 2.9% in Q1 2026, but a new debate is focused on whether growth is creating enough jobs for young people to afford independent living in Amman. Venture Capital: Malaysia’s Jelawang Capital added two new emerging managers—Superscrypt and TNB Aura—under its Emerging Managers’ Programme, aiming to scale early-stage funds. Wages Watch: Finland reported working-day adjusted wages and salaries up 3.4% year-on-year in August, with construction and manufacturing among the strongest gainers. Airlines Fuel Pressure: India’s airlines are pushing for ATF price stabilisation as jet fuel costs surge, while markets also cheered oil falling below $100. EU Trade Tensions: France and Germany back a stronger EU trade tool modeled on US Section 301, drawing criticism that it could hurt EU-China ties and industrial competitiveness. Middle East Growth Hit: The World Bank cut 2026 Middle East growth forecasts, citing the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Local Business & Infrastructure: Bahrain highlighted F1’s tourism and business boost and backed workforce development via Seef Properties’ Taasis internship program. Public Finance & Markets: Turkey’s justice minister said regulators are compiling lists of investors with unusually fast fund gains as part of a market manipulation probe.

Inclusive Insurance: Pakistan’s SECP says microinsurance can strengthen social protection, but products must be easy to understand, affordable, and pay claims reliably. Vape Crackdown: YPAP urges Pakistan to ban imported vape/e-cigarettes, citing toxic chemicals and rising youth use. Forex Pressure: FPCCI warns Pakistan’s widening trade deficit (Q1 FY27 up 15.13% to $10.792bn) is draining reserves unless imports are curbed. Tech Leadership: Pakistan’s Muhammad Zohaib Khan becomes the first Pakistani vice-chairman of ASOCIO, boosting regional IT ties. Energy & Markets: Oil slips about $2 as Middle East crude exports rise and G7 pledges emergency diesel/crude releases. Tax Administration: FBR moves selected sales tax audits to a new faceless system, while PAC reviews audit objections tied to ED and FEB&GIF issues. Trade & Industry: Faisalabad pushes circular-city textile recycling for EU compliance; LCCI pledges help to industrial clusters; seafood exports jump 74.75% in Q1 FY27. US Policy Watch: Trump administration reportedly plans to loosen dyed diesel restrictions, potentially cutting fuel costs for off-road users.

Monetary & Markets: Nepal’s NEPSE slid 20.48 points to 2,566.76 as turnover fell by over Rs 1 billion, while India’s Sensex jumped and Nifty rose alongside a weaker rupee that closed at 96.30 per US dollar. Rates Watch (US/India): A White House economist said Fed rate hikes may be over for 2026 after a soft September jobs report, and India’s RBI is widely expected to lift the repo rate by 25 bps in October amid inflation and crude-oil pressure. Trade & Investment: India and the UAE discussed expanding trade and investment, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE backed a railway corridor linking Central Asia to Pakistan’s seaports. Energy & Food Security: The EU temporarily suspended Namibia fresh meat imports after an FMD outbreak, and Turkey’s “Development Road” project was pitched as a potential $80bn-a-year energy corridor. Jobs & Tech: Malaysia warned that AI, the gig economy and e-commerce need workforce planning and regulation to protect wages and jobs, as Singapore reported its digital economy hit S$144.1bn in 2025 with rising AI adoption. Policy & Business Climate: Northern Ireland launched an automatic £63 electricity discount for eligible households, and Cyprus opened public consultation on research funding for 2028-2034.