AGP Executive Report

MSME Push in Pakistan: Pakistan’s PM aide Haroon Akhtar Khan marked World MSME Day, calling MSMEs the backbone of the economy (about 7.14m firms; ~40% of GDP; 30% of exports) and linking competitiveness to AI, digital transformation and export-led growth. GST at 10 (India): As GST completes a decade, the focus is shifting from rollout to efficiency—using AI, data sharing and simpler processes to cut compliance costs, speed refunds and tighten enforcement. Homebuyers’ Rights (India): India’s Supreme Court ruled buyers can still claim compensation for delayed possession even after taking flat possession, reshaping long-running consumer disputes. Markets & FX (India): FIIs are returning to Indian equities as the rupee strengthens (around 94.40/$) and crude eases, after weeks of selling. Energy Risk (India): EY warns crude import dependence has crossed 90% in FY26, urging expansion of strategic reserves to reduce vulnerability to global shocks. Iran War Spillovers: The Strait of Hormuz and war-linked disruptions are straining remittance-dependent and Gulf-linked migration economies, while inflation pressures in Iran near 89%. Philippines Budget: The Philippines approved a record 2027 budget (7.2tn pesos) while lowering growth targets amid high borrowing costs and persistent inflation. Tech & Jobs (Malaysia): Malaysia’s communications ministry will push NADI outreach to help more people earn via the digital economy, including selling online and becoming TikTok affiliates. Cooling Demand (India): June saw uneven summer demand: AC sales slowed on unseasonal weather and higher prices, while beverages and ice cream held up. Corporate Deal (India): Strides Pharma will sell a majority stake in Pivot Path to Ascent Capital for ~₹100 crore to fund expansion and growth.

Energy & Climate Transition: Sarawak is repositioning toward a low-carbon, tech-led economy under PCDS 2030, valuing forests as carbon sinks for trading, pushing AI for public services, and aiming to become a regional green-energy hub anchored by hydro and gas. Co-ops & Digital Finance: Malaysia’s ANGKASA approved six cooperative business plans worth RM293m, including an investment to acquire a stake in Boost Bank via digital services, pending KUSKOP approval. Maritime Security & Trade: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif stressed that uninterrupted sea-lane access is vital for global supply chains, as Strait of Hormuz tensions flare again after a tanker strike and drone attacks involving Iran, Bahrain, and U.S. actions. AI & Jobs Anxiety: Nobel economist Robert Shiller warned AI job fears could become self-fulfilling, arguing the panic is a familiar pattern with new technology. Local Economy & Infrastructure: Mexico’s economy activity rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, led by construction and services, while Nepal’s Kathmandu ring road expansion faces delays despite grant agreements. SME Pressure: India’s MSMEs were highlighted as a major GDP and employment driver, but working-capital stress and overdue receivables remain a key constraint.

Trade & Exports: Jordanian food firms will join the U.S. “Fancy Food Show,” with exporters citing the Free Trade Agreement as a key route to more foreign-currency inflows and jobs. EU Markets: Jordan’s exports to the EU jumped 49.3% in the first four months, reaching 218 million dinars, led by industrial, food, pharma and chemical sectors. Maritime Logistics: Aqaba’s seafarers are highlighted for keeping global trade moving, with the Port of Aqaba positioned as a regional logistics hub. Energy & Markets: European gas prices rose 1.6% as Hormuz tensions and an attack on a commercial vessel tighten LNG supply; storage sits just over 47% full. Global Finance: Brazil is set to issue its first sovereign panda bonds, up to 5 billion yuan, boosting China-Brazil financial ties. Tech & Business: Alphabet will join the Dow Jones on June 29 as S&P Global reshuffles for a more tech-focused index. Local Economy: Wyoming’s new Chick-fil-A at the University of Wyoming Union opens, with revenue-sharing for the campus and pickup ordering for convenience.

Canada–Quebec Industry Support: Minister Mélanie Joly will back Champion Iron in Montréal with an announcement aimed at strengthening Canada’s steel sector. Public Safety & Youth Justice: Nunavut gets $1.59M for a Therapeutic Justice Program in Pond Inlet to cut reoffending for youth in the justice system. AI & Consumer Prices: Economists warn the AI build-out is feeding broader inflation pressures as demand for chips, power and skilled labor lifts costs across the economy. Cyber Risk to Industry: Investigators say Russian hackers were behind the $2.5B Jaguar Land Rover ransomware attack that disrupted UK production. Monetary Policy Watch: Reuters polling suggests the Fed is likely to hold rates steady through 2026 as inflation stays above target but oil prices ease pressure. Corporate Restructuring: Volkswagen is considering sweeping changes that could cut up to 100,000 jobs and close multiple German plants. Healthcare Payments Automation: U.S. Bank is hiring to push AI-driven automation to digitize healthcare billing and payments. Food Prices Strategy: Canada launches a National Food Security Strategy with $3B over 10 years to boost productivity and competition. Digital Economy in Dubai: Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy will showcase the city’s digital ecosystem at GITEX AI Europe 2026. Local Economic Development: Ghana’s Mahama breaks ground on a 24-hour economy market designed to boost trade with cold storage, services and banking.

AI & Retail Infrastructure: Crenny raised ₹5 crore to build AI-powered digital commerce infrastructure for India’s retail economy, aiming to shift buying and customer engagement toward conversational tools like WhatsApp. Urban Competitiveness: Bangkok’s gubernatorial election spotlights how the city is fighting to stay attractive for talent and investment. EV Mobility Push: Hyundai and TVS launched a pilot of “Blue Move,” an EV ride-hailing service using electric three-wheelers in Delhi NCR, testing before any wider rollout. Housing Costs: New York voted to freeze rents for some rent-stabilized apartments, a direct response to rising cost-of-living pressures. Tech Hardware Inflation: Apple and Microsoft raised prices as AI data-center demand lifts memory and storage component costs. Energy Grid Investment: Türkiye says it needs at least $50B over the next decade to upgrade electricity distribution networks amid rising demand and AI/data-center growth. Monetary Policy Pressure (Nepal): Nepal Chamber of Commerce urged Nepal Rastra Bank to make policy more investment-friendly, including easier credit conditions. Public Finance Risk (US): A Penn Wharton Budget Model warns U.S. federal debt may hit a sustainability outer bound around 210% of GDP within two decades. Africa Value Addition: AfDB urged African countries to stop exporting raw resources and instead process locally to drive industrialisation. Liberia Growth Outlook: IMF projects Liberia’s economy to grow 5.5% in 2026 on reforms and activity in mining, manufacturing, and construction.

US Health Costs: A new affordability index shows fewer than half of Americans believe they can pay for health care, with many “cost insecure” as premiums and medical bills outpace wages. AI Memory Boom: Micron’s revenue jumped 346% on AI-driven memory demand, as long-term “take-or-pay” deals aim to smooth the classic boom-bust cycle. US Jobs Signal: Weekly unemployment claims fell to 215,000, below economists’ expectations, suggesting layoffs remain steady. Construction Pressure: Engineering and construction costs rose again, with inflation and longer supplier lead times weighing on project momentum. Canada Trade Uncertainty: Deloitte says Canada is “on pause” amid CUSMA uncertainty, with weak investment holding growth back despite no recession. Curaçao Policy Focus: The central bank warns healthcare financing is a key economic risk and urges less red tape plus reforms to sustain tourism-led growth. Philippines Infrastructure Plan: The government will speed up infrastructure spending in the second half after cautious fund releases tied to past flood-control scandal concerns. Malaysia New Space Economy: Malaysia outlines talent-building plans under its National Space Policy 2030 to grow the space sector’s GDP contribution.

Markets & Rates: Canada’s data has economists worried after Statistics Canada showed a surprise contraction in Q1, sparking talk of a “data quality crisis” and a possible technical recession. Oil & Energy: Crude slid to pre–Iran war levels as Hormuz traffic reportedly rose and traders flagged demand softness and a mild oversupply. Asia Growth Watch: RBI may lift India’s growth forecast above 7% as oil prices ease; India’s retail lending is also set for a multi-decade expansion cycle. Policy & Industry: Armenia plans a shift to a high-value-added economy with five industrial zones. Tech & Finance: EPFO will shut its portal June 26–28 for upgrades, while Kalshi seeks a fresh $40B valuation in prediction-market fundraising. Security & Business Risk: SecondFi says it patched a Cardano wallet exploit that drained about $2.4m. Tourism & Jobs: PNG tourism contributed about $244m in 2025; Saudi waste management could add $32b to GDP by 2040.

Food affordability debate (Canada): A new argument says Canada’s high food costs aren’t just “external shocks” like climate or global supply chains, but also hidden regulatory and administrative delays in meat imports that can slow approvals and add friction. Government vs prices (US): Economist Mark J. Perry points to a long-run pattern: sectors with heavy government involvement—health care, college, child care, housing—show much bigger price jumps than lightly regulated goods like TVs and software. Supply-chain risk (worksites): Avetta’s 2026 findings say the biggest safety gains come when firms go beyond audits and extend controls to active job sites, with worksite scheduling and permissions linked to sharply lower fatality rates. AI and management: PA Consulting highlights how AI makes knowledge “less scarce,” pushing leaders to redesign organizations around judgment, accountability, trust, and adaptability. Cyber for SMEs: The CyCOS project is moving from an academic pilot to a professional program under CIISec to help small firms close practical cyber gaps. Malaysia investment signal: Economists cite Malaysia’s rising net FDI to RM65.9b in 2025 as proof of stronger investor confidence and a healthier balance of payments. Monsoon risk (India): Weak rainfall threatens India’s $300b farm-and-food economy, raising food inflation pressure and complicating central bank decisions. Argentina growth: GDP rose 0.7% in Q1 2026, but weaker industry and public spending weighed on momentum. EU crypto crackdown: MiCA’s full rollout forces most crypto firms to secure authorization or stop EU services, reshaping the market. Wealth transfer: UBS estimates $83.5t will shift across generations over two decades, likely reshaping investment, real estate, and family business strategies. Electrification push: EU and UK-backed efforts aim to speed electrification as a “powerful weapon” against fossil-fuel demand. Kentucky data centers: Senator Rand Paul argues data-center decisions should stay local, while warning about AI surveillance risks. Armenia-Iran trade: Armenia and Iran discuss boosting border throughput via logistics upgrades and checkpoint modernization.

Central Banking Watch (Australia): Australia’s inflation print kept pressure on the RBA, with food and housing costs rising and economists warning a rate hike is still on the table. Corporate Actions (India): Deepak Builders & Engineers credited shares after a 10-for-1 subdivision to boost liquidity, while Bansal Wire plans to sell up to 2.99% to meet minimum public shareholding rules. Defence & Aerospace (India): Bharat Dynamics booked a ₹1,347.71 crore order from HAL for Helina launchers and other systems, extending momentum in India’s defence supply chain. Tax Administration (Armenia): Armenia will tighten unpaid-tax collection from July 1 via electronic reminders, faster bank/property seizure steps, and escalation to enforcement if unpaid. Trade & Exports (Armenia/EU): Economy Minister Papoyan met EU diplomats to push export growth and simplify trade, amid Russia-linked import restrictions. Energy Subsidies (Malaysia): Malaysia will cut subsidised diesel to RM2.10/l from July 2026 using MyKad verification to curb leakage and smuggling. Regional Risk (Southeast Asia): El Niño-driven dry conditions raise the odds of severe transboundary haze in 2026, with a red risk flagged for parts of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Business & Logistics (India): Unicommerce partnered with Swiggy Networks to streamline B2B order processing and warehouse fulfilment. Markets & Growth (UAE): A report highlights how UAE’s knowledge-economy push in tech, AI and logistics is expected to drive most GDP growth through 2030. Funding & Startups (India): IoT smart-lock firm IkinGlobal raised $2m pre-Series A2 to expand globally and scale manufacturing.

US Economy & Markets: KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk warns the US is vulnerable to a stock-market correction, arguing wealth is highly concentrated and the “K-shaped” economy may feel the hit even if data looks strong. Housing Policy: The US Senate passed a bipartisan housing bill to cut red tape, expand local control, and boost supply, with a ban on corporate purchases of single-family homes. Tech & Finance: Franklin Templeton is creating a dedicated Franklin Crypto unit after buying 250 Digital, while Agora hired former Robinhood Crypto COO Tanya Denisova to run operations for its stablecoin push. Energy & Geopolitics: The US temporarily lifted major Iran sanctions for 60 days, reopening crude oil trade and logistics—while global markets react to shifting risk and oil expectations. India Markets & Industry: India’s Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on metal and IT selling; Tata Motors posted its best-ever FY26 PV sales, and Akasa Air targets ~30% capacity growth. Trade Rules (Armenia): From July 1, Armenia will require conformity assessment documents for certain imported goods submitted to customs under domestic consumption. Blue Economy (Tanzania): Canada-backed ReSea handed over productive equipment for seaweed and other coastal enterprises, aiming to build climate resilience and jobs.

Maritime & Logistics: Malaysia is pushing a future-ready maritime economy as the Strait of Malacca grows in strategic importance, betting on port modernisation, automation, multimodal logistics and stronger shipping security. SME Financing: Uganda’s Centenary Bank and the African Guarantee Fund launched a partnership to expand affordable SME lending, with a focus on women and youth entrepreneurs. Creative Economy: Bangladesh will roll out a “Created in Bangladesh” national brand to boost film, OTT and creative-industry jobs, targeting 1.5% of GDP contribution and 500,000 new jobs. Digital Adoption: India’s MSMEs are leaning into UPI/Aadhaar payments and AI tools, with PayNearby reporting 61% of transactions via UPI/Aadhaar banking and 71% of retailers using AI. Markets & Policy: RBI injected Rs 1.41 lakh crore liquidity via a VRR auction as banking system liquidity turned negative; in the UK, debt-servicing costs are tightening fiscal room, while political leadership uncertainty is rattling bond markets. Corporate Moves: Vodafone Idea raised Rs 1,182.5 crore via warrants from Aditya Birla Group; Kajaria Ceramics approved a buyback at ₹1,380/share; Turtlemint’s IPO was only 57% subscribed on day two. Energy & Trade Risks: Analysts say Pakistan’s Iran-war diplomacy could bring goodwill but won’t fix deeper economic constraints; Gulf tensions are reshaping travel demand even as overall demand stays resilient.

Blue Economy & Finance: The UWI Five Islands Campus launched a Blue Finance and Ocean Innovation side event ahead of CHOGM, aiming to spotlight ocean conservation and financing models. Energy Shock Stimulus: Indonesia unveiled a $1.48bn (26.34tn rupiah) mid-year stimulus to support growth amid the energy crisis and a currency slump. Iran Deal Watch: The US authorized Iranian oil production and sales under a temporary general license as talks continue, with potential knock-on effects for oil markets and global prices. Central Bank Rules: Albania’s lawmakers urged the central bank to prioritize the exchange rate and align more closely with EU rules. AI in Finance: MoonPay acquired Entendre to bring AI accounting agents into stablecoin-linked finance workflows. Markets Sentiment: Financial advisors turned more optimistic on stocks and the broader economy, citing improving conditions. Housing Affordability: A new report says affordability is unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels as supply stays tight and rates remain sensitive. Environmental Cost: A study estimates “mega-consumers” face up to $5.7tn a year in environmental damage, underscoring the economic weight of climate and biodiversity loss. Tech & Jobs: New Mexico and Albuquerque backed BlackVe to expand space/defense operations, targeting 152 high-paying jobs. Policy & Trade: Qatar and France discussed energy cooperation and ways to deepen ties. US-Iran Credibility Debate: Nobel economist Paul Krugman warned Trump’s Iran approach could damage US credibility for years.

US-Iran Talks & Energy Markets: Crude prices slid as the US and Iran began a 60-day negotiation process in Switzerland, with mediators Pakistan and Qatar involved; the Strait of Hormuz reopening remains central to global shipping and oil flows. Indian Markets & IPO Momentum: Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Monday, led by banking and IT, while Reliance surged after Jio filed for an IPO—seen as a major value unlock. Corporate Deals & Expansion: Aurobindo Pharma won US FTC approval to buy Lannett for $250m, boosting complex generics and adding manufacturing capacity; Kirloskar Oil Engines jumped 20% on a 196 MW power order for AI data centres. Policy & Digital Economy: China rolled out measures to strengthen data security governance and issued an action plan to boost foreign investment use; it also plans coordinated development across platform-economy firms by 2028. Regional Business Climate: Hong Kong climbed to No. 2 in IMD competitiveness, while China-South Korea cooperation signals pragmatic economic ties amid global uncertainty. SME Leadership Trend: SMEs are increasingly turning to fractional executives to solve specific growth problems without the cost and risk of permanent C-suite hires.

Philippines Monetary Policy: The BSP is expected to stay hawkish, with lenders projecting another 50 bps of hikes to lift the policy rate to 5.25% by end-2026, aiming to anchor the peso amid supply-side inflation. Fed Communication Shift: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is cutting back “forward guidance” and shortening the policy statement, a move that could raise market swings and keep borrowing costs higher. Global Markets & Rates: Analysts warn a quieter Fed could still mean volatile markets and higher rates, while Morgan Stanley frames Warsh’s approach as a brake on future policy expectations. Brexit Backlash in the UK: An ECFR poll finds up to two-thirds of Britons across parties blame Brexit for higher living costs and worse economic prospects, with most now favoring closer EU ties. Tech & Logistics Investment: Amazon unveiled a next-gen AI warehouse robot that can follow conversational prompts, tied to a €10bn Europe fulfilment push, alongside broader automation rollout. Nigeria Power Crunch: The IMF warns Nigeria’s below-cost electricity tariffs are creating implicit subsidies and mounting fiscal risks, with sector arrears reaching extreme levels by end-2025. India Space Economy: India’s space sector is projected to grow five-fold to $40–45bn in a decade, driven by private participation and new commercialization structures. West Asia Trade & Energy: With US-Iran talks in focus, bullion and oil-linked expectations are set to steer gold and silver next week, while easing tensions may reduce safe-haven demand. Kazakhstan Mediation Offer: Astana says it’s ready to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan if formally requested, pushing dialogue over escalation. Corporate EV Momentum: Tata Motors reports 3,400+ electric commercial vehicle orders, signaling EVs moving from trials into regular freight and fleet operations. Guinea Resource Policy: Guinea suspends raw gold exports to force local processing and refine-and-sell domestically, aiming to keep more value inside the country.

Budget Execution Watch (Bangladesh): Economist Hossain Zillur Rahman urged the government to publish a clear roadmap for implementing the next fiscal year budget and to release a three-month progress report, while the finance minister said stabilising the fragile economy could take two years and pointed to reforms separating policy from execution plus Tk 800 crore earmarked for the creative economy. Energy Supply & Risk (Indonesia): Indonesia’s energy minister said coal supplies for PLN are secure despite recent blackouts, blaming outages on operational and distribution issues and citing production mandates above PLN’s needs. Oil Route Relief, Future Vulnerability (Global): With the Strait of Hormuz reopened after a US-Iran pause, analysts warned the world still relies heavily on depleted reserves, making future disruptions harder to absorb. Banking Scrutiny (Cyprus): A debate piece questioned whether Cyprus banks’ “stronger than ever” claims translate into real support for the local economy, highlighting concerns about profits versus social impact. FDI Momentum (Bahrain): Bahrain’s foreign direct investment rose 81% over a decade to BD17.733bn by end-2025, with the biggest jump in 2023. Infrastructure Orders (India): RVNL won a Rs 2,977 crore NMDC contract for Vizag mineral blending stockpiles; Texmaco Rail secured Rs 11.65 crore for transmission works; Power Mech landed Rs 1,008.90 crore for BTG civil/structural work at a JSW Thermal project. Agriculture Crisis Response (India): BJP chief Nitin Nabin plans talks with agriculture economist SS Johl in Ludhiana on Monday, focusing on crop diversification away from wheat and paddy and MSP support for alternatives. Policy & Markets (India): India’s top finance committee is reviewing the 2025-26 economy with the Finance Ministry, RBI and experts amid global shocks. Corporate/Capital Markets (India): Emkay reiterated a BUY on Pine Labs with a Rs 225 target; Motilal Oswal kept a BUY on JSW Steel with a Rs 1,520 target. Monetary Policy (Namibia): Bank of Namibia raised the repo rate to 6.75% to protect the Namibia dollar peg, citing weak domestic activity and external shock risks to NDP 6.

Blue Economy & Trade Security: Malaysia says accurate hydrographic data is now a strategic national-security asset, warning that disruptions in the South China Sea and Strait of Melaka can ripple into global supply chains and energy markets. Tech-Led Development: Malaysia’s PM Anwar frames a new growth phase around semiconductors, innovation and AI, while stressing fair benefits and jobs from industrial projects like Penang’s Setia Fontaines. Private Sector Confidence: Nepal’s private sector remains hesitant despite abundant bank liquidity and lower rates, with weak demand and stalled investment momentum. Ghana 24-Hour Economy Push: Ghana’s 24-hour markets plan faces political friction as critics question delivery and cocoa irrigation pledges, while MPs defend the rollout and district coverage. Digital Payments Expansion: KripiCard launches a unified digital marketplace combining crypto virtual cards, digital gift cards and global eSIMs. US-Iran Economic Stakes: Trump links the Iran interim deal to avoiding “economic catastrophe,” as Hormuz reopening and sanctions waivers move oil and markets—setting up fresh pressure ahead of talks. Russia Monetary Policy: Russia cuts its key rate to 14.25% but signals rates stay elevated due to pro-inflationary fiscal spending and fuel-price pressures. Corporate Governance (India): TVS Motor appoints an independent director via postal ballot with 99.81% approval.