AGP Executive Report

UK Politics & Economy: Andy Burnham became the UK’s new prime minister and named ex-defence chief John Healey as chancellor, a move that signals a tougher stance on reindustrialisation and cost-of-living pressures amid weak growth and high debt. AI & Productivity: A new study says 94% of software developers report AI productivity gains and 83% see fewer defects, but governance and security maturity lag behind adoption. US Media Antitrust: A federal judge paused the Paramount–Warner Bros. megamerger for 14 days, citing likely antitrust violations in wide-release theatrical distribution. Canada Energy & Real Estate: BP’s exit from the Bay du Nord offshore oil project raises questions, while Equinor’s buyout of its partner is seen as a stronger commitment to move toward a final decision; meanwhile Brookfield and CPPIB agreed to buy LXP Industrial Trust for US$5.2bn. Inflation & Jobs Signals: US unemployment fell in June but job counts were still lower than a year ago, and inflation is described as cooling with economists weighing what it means for the next policy steps. Africa Policy Coordination: A new African Chief Economists Network aims to strengthen evidence-based policymaking and coordinate research and recommendations across the continent. Local Economy & Community: Farmers market “Market Bucks” programs are set to launch to stretch SNAP and SUN Bucks and boost local food spending.

AI for MSME lending: The Philippines’ DICT and Land Bank will build AI-enabled digital tools to help micro, small and medium firms prove creditworthiness and digitize loan applications, aligning with ASEAN’s AI-powered MSME push. Creative economy with AI: Malaysia’s Orange Economy Consortium and Cloudwise (Beijing) plan AI-powered creative content to strengthen publishing, IP development and digital creation. Geopolitics and inflation pressure: Malaysia’s deputy economy minister says renewed US-Iran conflict is lifting oil and could raise input costs, while Jordan is estimating a high fiscal burden from the war and reporting remittance and tourism shifts. Oil and gold swings: Brent jumped above $90 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, while gold slipped as rate-hike expectations returned. Housing push in India: Telangana opens applications for 1 lakh Indiramma LIG homes in Hyderabad from July 21, with a pilot phase starting in 16 constituencies. Digital economy infrastructure risk (UK): A report warns grid capacity limits and power prices could push data centers overseas, threatening UK AI growth. Semiconductor hiring surge (South Korea): Entry-level semiconductor job postings rose 47% y/y in H1 as the AI chip boom drives recruitment.

Greece Macro Outlook: The Bank of Greece expects growth of 1.9% in 2026-27, easing to 2% in 2028, with inflation forecast at 3.8% in 2026 if Middle East conflict cools. Water & Industry Pressure: Texas’ draft 2027 water plan warns drought supplies could fall from 15.5m acre-feet (2030) to nearly 14m by 2080, with AI data centers potentially driving 3%-9% of statewide water use by 2040. Energy-Heavy Commodities: Analysts flag a 2026 copper deficit as AI data centers surge and supply disruptions bite, threatening higher prices. Housing Finance: In Singapore, PropNex reports 69.1% of $1m+ HDB resale buyers paid no cash over valuation, with most buyers aged 30-49. Construction Tech Push: Singapore’s BCA will waive rental fees for selected construction technology sandboxes for two years to speed adoption. Privatisation Drive: Ukraine accelerates privatisation, approving terms for the Odesa Port Plant sale and setting a new auction date for Sumykhimprom. Digital Economy Regulation: Nigeria’s Tinubu signs an executive order to regulate virtual assets and set up a Digital Economy Council. Corporate Support: New Zealand’s government gives Fletcher Building $60m to keep Golden Bay Cement running as carbon costs disadvantage domestic production. Crypto Market Structure: Kraken says simpler options could broaden crypto’s derivatives market beyond today’s institutional-heavy setup. Local Governance & Services: Santa Barbara’s SB Connect faces criticism for weak project status tracking, reducing residents’ trust in the portal. Social Spending Contingency: Malaysia’s PM says STR/SARA aid could rise in the Budget if the economy allows.

Energy & Inflation: Malaysia’s economist warns a national petroleum reserve shouldn’t stand alone, arguing it must sit inside a wider economic security plan covering food, critical minerals, semiconductors and digital infrastructure. Power Sector: Nepal’s Dairy Development Corporation will modernize milk collection from FY 2083/84, with cooperatives and farms needing to register by a set deadline or lose purchase access. Hydropower Pipeline: Nepal Electricity Authority will extend RCOD deadlines for stalled hydropower projects, grouping them by progress and PPA obligations. Tax & Electricity Costs: Nepal’s finance minister’s promise of no electricity price rise is undermined as 5% VAT on end-consumers takes effect. Currency & Capital Flows: Albania’s economy minister rejects claims drug money is driving the lek, citing tourism, foreign investment and remittances instead. UK Enforcement: Coventry orders a store to close for the third time over illicit tobacco and vapes. UK Politics & Growth: Britain’s new PM Andy Burnham inherits a tougher inflation-growth mix after Iran-linked energy shocks. Aviation & Connectivity: United rolls out “Economy Plus” on Airbus A321XLRs; Air Cambodia orders 20 COMAC C909 jets. Global Risks: A report warns the world is entering interlocking crises—wars, energy disruptions, protectionism and tech competition—pushing slower growth and higher inflation.

Bangladesh Expat Finance: The government will pilot the “Probashi Card” in August, with Janata Bank issuing the first debit cards and plans to scale from 50,000 by December to 200,000 by June 2027, aiming to boost financial inclusion and services for overseas Bangladeshis. Italy Telecom Deal: Telecom Italia’s board backed Poste Italiane’s €13bn+ takeover bid, setting up a state-backed push into digital identity, telecoms and cloud infrastructure. India Banking: ICICI Bank reported stronger Q1 profit (+15.9%/16%) on loan growth and lower provisions, with net interest income rising and margins stable. US Macro & Inflation: June inflation cooled, but economists warn AI-driven data-center build-outs may keep costs elevated; meanwhile US job growth slowed (weakest in months) with long-term unemployment still high. Nigeria Power Regulation: Consumer groups are urging Nigeria’s electricity market decentralisation committee to include electricity users, arguing demand-side voices were left out. Digital Economy & Finance: Nigeria unveiled Phase 2 of its Legal Basis project for data processing under the 2023 Data Protection Act, while tokenisation momentum continues as DTCC completes live trades in tokenised securities. Trade & Industry: Germany’s solar industry warns subsidy changes could threaten jobs and investment; New Zealand forecasts recovery hinges on lower fuel prices amid Middle East volatility. Logistics & Ports: Jordan’s Aqaba Container Terminal handled more TEUs and saw transshipment surge 177% in H1 2026. Policy & Security: Nepal’s NRB introduced loan rescheduling for construction entrepreneurs awaiting public payments, and the government warned against fake e-PAN card download scams.

Malaysia GDP: Malaysia’s economy is estimated to have grown 5.8% in Q2 2026, up from 5.4% in Q1, led by services (5.4%), faster manufacturing (7.5%) and a mining rebound (10.2%), while agriculture shrank 3.7%. India Banking: Kotak Mahindra Bank posted Q1FY27 net profit up 22.6% to ₹5,480.46 crore, with deposits up 14% and asset quality improving; Punjab National Bank also reported a 3x jump in Q1 net profit to over ₹5,200 crore. Insurance Outlook: Motilal Oswal reiterated BUY on ICICI Prudential Life with a Rs650 target and raised HDFC Life’s target to Rs690, citing strong protection-led new business. Space & Tech: India’s first private orbital rocket, Skyroot’s Vikram-1, successfully reached orbit, boosting momentum for a larger commercial space economy. Trade & Ports: Kerala’s Vizhinjam port will start full EXIM operations from Aug 18, aiming to turn the hub into a full international cargo gateway. Energy & Inflation Risks: Diesel prices topped $5 amid US-Iran tensions, raising fears of broader cost pressure; UK grocery inflation ticked up to 2.6% YoY, with fish prices driving the jump. Policy & Regulation: Luxembourg unveiled a new legal framework for defence production, requiring authorisation and traceability for weapons and components. Africa Labor Pressure: South Africa’s migrant outflow is disrupting services and labor supply, with economists warning of near-term productivity hits.

IMF Watch (UAE): IMF staff wrapped up a 7–16 July visit to the UAE, praising the country’s resilience amid Middle East geopolitics and highlighting plans for the 2026 Article IV mission, with the Central Bank stressing stronger monetary and financial stability and a more prepared financial system. Investor Mood (China/Middle East): Reports point to a slowing Chinese economy and renewed Middle East conflict as key nerves for markets, while tech sentiment is also pressured after SpaceX’s IPO hype cooled. Policy & Jobs (Bangladesh): Bangladesh’s LGRD minister said the garment sector will be central to recovery, urging skills, innovation and a creative economy as capital flight and other shocks weigh on growth. Healthcare Costs (US/Florida): Florida counties face nearly $420m in Medicaid costs this year, with Amendment 3 potentially cutting local tax revenue and squeezing budgets. Development Plan (South Africa): South Africa’s draft township and rural economy policy moves through public comment, aiming to formalise and support township businesses—while critics warn implementation gaps. Food & Trade (Grain markets): Grain prices are being driven more by demand, trade and Black Sea geopolitics than weather, with China’s buying commitments in focus. AI Skills (India): A report says AI-related skills now appear in 15.4% of Indian tech job descriptions, up sharply since 2020, as demand spreads beyond pure tech roles. Local Economy (Texas): Texas set a new June record for total jobs, reinforcing its push for investment and workforce growth. Climate/Blue Economy (Caribbean): CRFM and the Caribbean Climate Change Centre are strengthening ties to tackle climate impacts on fisheries and coastal communities, including sargassum challenges.

Malaysia Growth Watch: Malaysia’s economy stayed resilient with GDP up 5.8% in Q2 2026 (after 5.4% in Q1), led by services and manufacturing, while agriculture contracted; inflation also eased to 1.9% in June. India Policy & Data: India is set to roll out a new Index of Services Production with trial numbers for 19 sectors, aiming for a more frequent read on services activity. Global Energy Risk: The IMF warns oil reserves are running low, leaving the world more exposed to supply shocks as US-Iran tensions threaten disruption. China Investment & Infrastructure: China expects foreign investment momentum to continue, with inflows shifting toward higher-value, tech-driven sectors; meanwhile, railway fixed-asset investment rose 2.1% in H1. Nepal Infrastructure Push: Nepal’s Social Security Fund set new interest rates for FY2083/84, while energy leaders stress faster transmission and distribution buildout and urge reforms to cut forest-approval delays. Trade & Compliance: Armenia moves ahead on EU fish exports by registering firms in the TRACES system.

Ghana 24-Hour Economy: Construction of the first phase of the 1,500MW Buipe solar project is set to start next month, with the first 100MW coming online early, aiming to cut industrial power costs from 18–23 US cents/kWh to 7–9 cents and boost manufacturing competitiveness. Ghana Market Push: President Mahama also broke ground on a modern 24-Hour Economy Market at Juapong, designed for storage, processing, digital commerce and reduced post-harvest losses across Volta Region. Digital Divide: Nigeria’s telecom regulators urged regional cooperation to close the mobile internet usage gap, strengthen cybersecurity and harmonise digital policy. Housing Costs: Mortgage rates climbed again as Middle East tensions lifted Treasury yields; the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.55%. Banking Snapshot: JPMorgan reported $21.2B Q2 net income (+41%) and CEO Jamie Dimon said the economy is “close to as good as it gets.” China Growth: China posted 4.7% H1 growth (4.3% in Q2), citing innovation and resilient demand. AI & Economy: Nvidia’s CEO said AI and robotics could help Japan tackle labor shortages and revitalize growth.

Russia Inflation Watch: Russia’s central bank says June’s fuel-driven inflation surge is spreading beyond petrol stations, raising forecasts for inflation and rates and dimming hopes for easier policy. Gold & Oil: Gold slid as Middle East escalation revived oil-price worries and kept rate expectations firm; spot gold fell 0.6% while oil extended gains after strikes tied to Iran tensions. UK Growth Check: The UK economy eked out 0.1% growth in May, helped by services but still fragile amid Iran-war uncertainty and higher energy costs. Global Outlook: Moody’s Analytics expects world growth to slow to 2.5% by 2026 as inflation, tensions and trade frictions weigh on demand. China Mixed Signals: China reported 4.7% H1 growth with exports and high-tech supporting momentum, but demand and investment gaps point to a “two-speed” economy. India Transport Policy: India’s Power Ministry circulated draft CAFE-III norms, tightening fuel-efficiency targets from 2027-28 and adding EV and biofuel incentives. Digital Payments Push (Pakistan): Pakistan targets 100% digital remittances, expanding QR and mobile banking to boost transparency and cashless activity. Energy M&A (US): Regulators are urged to approve Dominion’s $67B deal with NextEra, aiming to build a major regulated utility as data-center demand rises. Space Funding (Switzerland): SWISSto12 closed a $70M Series C to scale multi-orbit satellite capacity. SME Tax Pressure (UK): New research finds 22% of SMEs fear they’ll be forced out over tax-payment problems, with many missing deadlines.

Global Payments M&A: Stripe and Advent International have made a joint bid to buy PayPal for about $60.50 a share, valuing it at $53B+ and potentially reshaping online payments at massive scale. China Growth Watch: China’s Q2 GDP rose 4.3%—the slowest since late 2022—as war-driven oil costs and weak domestic demand offset a 27% export jump in June. Household Pressure in the US: Americans are increasingly using credit-card rewards for everyday essentials like groceries and gas as inflation strains budgets. Auto Repair Crunch: High-tech vehicles are getting harder and pricier to fix, with mechanics warning they’re being locked out of tools and information. Fed & Inflation: The Fed’s Beige Book points to improving activity but still-unwelcome inflation, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced questions on AI and policy direction. Energy & Jobs: HudsonAlpha won an NSF grant to build a rural bio-economy in Alabama and Tennessee. Tourism & Local Economies: Hilltops Council is rolling out a tourism plan to boost the visitor economy, while Missoula tourism is framed as a major local economic driver. Tech/Space Markets: SpaceX shares slipped below IPO price for the first time, signaling Wall Street enthusiasm can cool fast.

Capital Markets (Nepal): SEBON chair Dr. Gopal Prasad Bhatta says short selling will be rolled out soon and promises action against illegal “Pre-IPO” deals, while lawmakers press for a long-term SEBON strategy, new instruments, and stronger investor confidence. Energy & Consumer Safety (Nepal): Nepal reintroduced full 14.2kg LPG cylinders to ease shortages, but MPs and industry leaders warn the half-cylinder policy is driving higher costs, confusion, and complaints over cylinder quality and safety; they want better monitoring systems and clearer timelines. Local Economy (South Africa): After 30 June protests, economists say xenophobic pressure on foreign-owned spaza shops worsened informal retail supply gaps and disrupted deliveries, contributing to higher bread prices in some areas. Monetary Policy (Russia): Putin again calls for rate cuts as inflation and wartime economic strain squeeze SMEs, raising pressure on the central bank. Space Costs (Global): A Cambridge study finds rocket launches are 95% cheaper than in 1960 and could keep falling as the industry learns. Housing (Canada): CREA reports home sales up for a third straight month as listings fall, with prices stabilizing and expectations for a stronger second half. Digital Finance (UK): The UK plans a digital sovereign bond (“DIGIT”) by early 2027 using blockchain infrastructure. Trade & Growth (Korea): Korea lifts its 2026 growth forecast to 3% on semiconductor-driven exports and investment, but hiring is expected to lag. Aviation & Tourism (Armenia): Shirak Avia launches direct flights from Yerevan to Bali, Thailand and the Maldives, while Armenia wins a MICE Excellence award for business tourism.

Airline Pricing Innovation: United Airlines will debut Economy Plus on Airbus A321XLR aircraft with a permanently blocked middle seat and extra legroom, turning “empty space” into a paid upgrade. Competition & Regulation: Spain’s Economy panel approved renewal of CNMC leadership candidates, keeping the competition regulator’s oversight on track for another six-year term. Aviation Finance Deal: Willis Lease Finance agreed to acquire 12 aircraft and 13 engines, expanding its leasing and aftermarket portfolio. China Growth Watch: Reuters reports China’s Q2 growth likely cooled to around 4.4–4.5% as property weakness weighed on consumption while AI-linked exports stayed resilient; stimulus is expected to be incremental. Inflation Moves Markets: Softer US June inflation (3.5% y/y) lifted stocks and reduced odds of a Fed hike, while gold jumped on the same data. Digital Bonds: UK plans to issue its first “digital” sovereign bond (digital gilt) by early 2027, using tokenisation and a BoE collateral framework. Local Economic Boost: New Zealand’s Waikato University Tauranga expansion could inject up to $20m into the local economy via higher enrolments and spending. Tech & Connectivity: Frontier Airlines will retrofit its fleet with SpaceX Starlink for in-flight high-speed internet starting early 2027. Housing Costs Pressure: Florida’s proposed property tax amendment is projected to cut local revenues by about $11.8bn annually, with supporters disputing the estimate.

AI & Productivity: Zambia’s government says AI is already lifting output in agriculture (precision and climate-smart farming up to 20%), cutting missed healthcare cases (20–40%), and narrowing education literacy gaps via adaptive learning. Digital Infrastructure: NATO awarded a ~€200m, seven-year cloud transformation contract to Accenture and Leonardo to build its Protected Business Network for secure, standardized classified operations. AI Funding & Search: Promptwatch raised €6m seed funding to expand its AI search optimization platform that tracks visibility across major AI models. Trade & China: China’s exports jumped 27% in June, powered by AI-driven chip and data equipment demand, even as domestic demand stays weak. Inflation Watch (India): India’s wholesale inflation quickened to 9.87% in June; food prices were a key driver. Cost of Living (Malaysia): Malaysia’s economy minister says household income rose, but higher essential-goods costs are still squeezing low-income and working-poor groups. Geopolitics & Markets: Renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil higher, dragging gold to a two-week low and keeping inflation and Fed-rate expectations in focus. Circular Economy (Region): OECD data highlights only 12% of plastic waste is effectively recycled in South and Southeast Asia, pushing packaging firms toward circular design.

AI Labor-Impact Push: A coalition of economists and tech leaders is urging policymakers to build “incentives, guardrails, and institutions” for AI’s fast workforce effects, citing sharply different global job-exposure estimates. Fed Credibility & Inflation: Discussion around new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh centers on inflation pressures, AI’s productivity/jobs angle, and how Fed credibility shapes policy. Inflation Watch (US): Economists expect June CPI to cool slightly, with gas easing but core inflation still rising, while Warsh testifies on Capitol Hill. Oil & Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz risk and Russia-Ukraine disruptions are feeding into higher diesel prices and renewed uncertainty for oil markets. Energy Storage Deal (US): Fluence will supply its U.S.-built Smartstack system for Avantus’s Rexford 2 battery project in California, supporting domestic manufacturing. Aerospace Workforce (Quebec): Quebec plans a second aerospace engineering campus near Montreal to meet rising defense-driven demand. Gender Budgeting (Morocco): Morocco’s 2026 gender-responsive budget report highlights legal and governance gains, including board gender parity rules. Nigeria Oil Reforms: IPPG calls for coordinated reforms to make Nigeria’s oil sector globally competitive, focusing on infrastructure, gas, and harmonized taxes. Housing & Design (US): A Realtor survey finds buyers strongly prefer walkability and mixed-use areas, shaping local planning priorities. Malaysia Aged-Nation Plan: Malaysia’s economy ministry outlines long-term social protection, healthcare sustainability, and a push for the silver economy. Circular Plastics Breakthrough (US): DOE/ORNL researchers report a lower-temperature method to convert polyethylene into gasoline/diesel using molten salts and aluminum chloride. South Dakota Budget: The state ends FY2026 with a $69m surplus, adding to reserves. South Africa PIC Crisis: South Africa’s PIC reportedly suspends its CEO and CIO amid a governance dispute tied to Lanseria Airport. EU Settlements Trade Fight: EU capitals press the Commission to act on Israeli settlement sanctions, but decisions are stalled. Quebec Aerospace Training: Enrollment expansion and new vocational programs aim to relieve capacity constraints.

Geopolitics & Energy Shock: Oil jumped as US-Iran tensions flared over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude above $79 and rattling markets from India to South Korea, where KOSPI briefly halted after an 8% plunge. Market Volatility & Corporate Impact: India’s Sensex/Nifty slid on the same oil-driven inflation worry; aviation and paint stocks led the drag, while Reliance Infrastructure hit lower circuit amid trading restrictions. Regulation & Consumer Safety: India’s FSSAI issued notices to Swiggy Instamart over alleged expired/unsafe food and seller compliance issues. Tech & Investment Signals: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh launched a full review of the central bank; TSMC is expected to emphasize capex and advanced process progress; South Korea’s central bank played down a chip peak as AI demand stays strong. Business Expansion: Dubai SME integrated Hamdan Innovation Incubator into Dubai Founders HQ; Zelio E-Mobility inaugurated a Coimbatore plant; Tata Capital agreed to buy 88.6% of Yogakshemam Loans. Global Risks: Economists warn a “super” El Niño could drive a severe food price shock lasting into 2028; a new ICAIE estimate puts the global illegal economy at at least $6T annually.