AGP Executive Report

Markets & FX: Asian shares traded mixed as oil jumped and US bond yields rose on firmer activity data, rattling global risk sentiment; the rupee slid 23 paise to 95.96 per dollar and India’s Sensex fell sharply with crude up. Energy & policy: Bank of America warned Brent could spike above $150 if Middle East disruptions persist; the EU launched a diplomatic push against a proposed US diesel export ban, arguing it could tighten supply. Payments & fees: NPCI said only about 10% of UPI transaction value may face MDR charges, with most costs expected to be absorbed by corporates. Regional resilience: EBRD said Jordan showed “notable resilience” in early 2026; it also raised Albania’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.5%. Development & jobs: India’s growth outlook improved as major agencies upgraded FY27 forecasts; meanwhile, The Economist flagged India’s education system as a “misery machine” for skills and employment. Food & inflation shocks: Nepal’s floods are expected to slow growth and lift inflation in FY27, while Zambia reported 7.2% Q2 growth with easing inflation. Business & sustainability: Nestlé PH and Puregold turned used sachets into retail display materials; Stuff Group plans to streamline regional news operations. Health & trade controls: Namibia imposed nationwide FMD movement and trade restrictions on cloven-hoofed animals.

Energy & Inflation: Diesel and gas prices stay under pressure as low inventories and refining constraints meet Middle East conflict risk, with economists warning any diesel export curbs could backfire by raising transport and grocery costs. Consumer Sentiment: UK consumer confidence slipped again as households brace for higher energy bills and the upcoming Budget to deliver cost-of-living relief. Finance & Markets: Bond-market stress and inflation worries pushed U.S. stocks lower, while Social Security funding debates resurfaced as analysts say closing the gap via payroll taxes alone would be unaffordable. AI & Investment: Basecamp Research raised $140M to advance AI-designed medicines, while data-center financing is evolving to handle AI-scale buildouts. Workforce & Skills: New Jersey community colleges launched paid data science/AI apprenticeships to widen access without requiring four-year degrees. Regional Economies: Wyoming airports’ systemwide impact was pegged at $3.5B and 21,683 jobs; Nepal’s mudslide is expected to hit growth and cause $2.69B in losses; Sri Lanka’s economy grew 4.2% in Q2 with IMF noting downside risks. Politics & Cost of Living: Morocco voted for a new parliament amid youth frustration; Florida’s governor candidates clashed on property taxes and data centers at a summit.

Global Growth Watch: The OECD says AI-led spending is cushioning the world, but the Middle East energy shock is worsening the 2027 outlook, with risks that could cut growth and lift inflation. India Macro: Fitch and the ADB both upgraded India’s FY27 growth outlook, citing resilience despite the US-Iran shock, while warning inflation and weaker rural conditions could weigh. UK Economy: The OECD downgraded the UK’s 2027 growth forecast to 1.0%, pointing to higher energy prices and rates. EU Sanctions Politics: EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis urged member states to resist “sanctions fatigue” as the bloc debates delistings and possible changes to unanimity rules. Moldova Energy Rules: Moldova advanced draft laws to simplify renewable energy permits and to set clearer rules for energy communities. Nepal Finance & Energy: Nepal’s finance minister backed a fintech payment and settlement bill with a regulatory sandbox, while the Nepal Electricity Authority named a new executive director focused on flood recovery and faster decentralized services. Zimbabwe Jobs: The ILO warned Zimbabwe’s informality remains massive, with 58.5% of employment informal and calls to formalize for better protection.

Space & Jobs: SpaceX has started hiring for its planned $100bn Vermilion Parish spaceport, seeking roles tied to Starship and Starbase infrastructure after buying 125,000 acres. Healthcare & Policy: Louisiana U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow faced Acadiana business leaders over Medicaid cuts, warning of downstream impacts on rural care and broader coverage. Energy & Food Prices: Kansas economists warn diesel-driven transport costs will lift grocery bills this fall, with effects likely showing up months after fuel price spikes. Central Banking & Inflation: Australia’s David Koch urged the RBA to look beyond household spending as another rate decision nears, arguing households have already tightened. AI & Work: Sen. Mark Kelly pushes an “AI Horizon Fund” idea to require tech firms to invest in workers displaced by AI. Digital Economy Shift: A new battle is forming over AI agents that may sit between customers and businesses, changing how people browse and buy. Global Outlook: The WEF says the world economy is stabilizing, but geopolitics, asset-price corrections, and cost-of-living pressure remain major risks. Agriculture: USDA is modernizing farm loan processes, but economists say Congress must raise loan limits to match today’s farming costs. Regional Growth: El Salvador is expanding pediatric orthopedic care via clubfoot surgeries and boosting livestock support with vaccines, feed subsidies, and pasture projects.

AI & Productivity: Northern Ireland’s AI economy doubled in a year to 400 firms and £200m+ in AI-related GVA, with AI employment up 79% to 2,402 roles, as adoption accelerates across every postcode. Central Banking & Inflation: Deloitte’s chief economist says higher US yields and rising inflation could push India’s RBI toward a rate hike later this year, even as strong credit growth argues for caution. Markets & Energy: Oil prices edged up as traders watched possible US-Iran talks, keeping crude highly sensitive to diplomatic headlines. Credit & Risk: Fitch upgraded Sri Lanka’s credit rating to ‘B-’ with a stable outlook, citing improved fiscal discipline, revenue gains and easing external financing risks. Social Protection: Zimbabwe’s NSSA is preparing to pilot a social security scheme for informal workers, pairing coverage with incentives like decent workspaces and affordable funding. FDI Policy: India’s next FDI phase should shift from just attracting capital to investor aftercare and smoother approvals, including fixing bottlenecks in land, logistics, utilities and compliance. Business & Governance: India’s finance minister urged firms to build trust and resolve disputes before litigation, stressing constructive engagement with regulators. Tech & Industry: Azerbaijan plans expanded mining and metallurgical development for 2027–2030, including more geological exploration in Karabakh and East Zangezur and longer-term financing access.

Energy & Cost Pressures: Gas prices in Memphis and across Tennessee are hovering around $4 a gallon, squeezing delivery drivers’ profits and raising the risk of added gig-economy surcharges. Food & Logistics Crime: Memphis police arrested 13 people after a stolen $250,000 truckload of frozen chicken was found being used to settle a drug debt, highlighting rising cargo theft. Monetary Policy Divergence: A look at why some central banks are raising rates while others hold—covering ECB, Fed, and Japan’s moves alongside holds elsewhere. Digital Economy & AI Finance: Bank of Canada says it’s building an AI model for economic forecasts, while the ECB is deploying Pontes to settle tokenized wholesale assets in central-bank money. Corporate/Deal Watch: Paramount’s Warner Bros takeover cleared a key hurdle after settlements, with added production and release commitments. Global Trade & Travel: New Zealand’s events strategy aims to boost tourism exports and brand value, while an India-New Zealand FTA is set to start with zero tariffs on Indian goods. Africa Refining Spotlight: Dangote Refinery’s IPO puts Nigeria’s refining economy in focus ahead of NORS 2026. Local Growth & Jobs: Winnipeg’s mayoral race centers on a “growth office” to keep projects shovel-ready for investment. Health Tech: Pattern Bioscience won FDA Breakthrough Device Designation for a rapid urine test that identifies UTI germs and antibiotic susceptibility in hours.

Monetary Policy: New Zealand’s ANZ economists lifted their view of the official cash rate to a new peak of 3.5%, citing higher oil prices, a weaker exchange rate and a stronger starting point for the economy. Global Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that stubborn inflation, higher debt-service costs and AI investment risks could keep the world economy under pressure, even as resilience holds up better than feared. Markets & FX: India’s Sensex jumped 564 points and Nifty rallied for a fourth straight day as oil eased and foreign inflows returned; the rupee firmed on expectations of calmer crude prices. Energy & Inflation: Oil slipped more than 2% as hopes grew for US-Iran de-escalation, though Houthi attacks and supply-route shifts keep risk elevated. Investment & Industry: Qatar created “Doha Investment” to boost domestic investment via a new QIA division; China’s surplus is being recycled into outbound investment, supporting overseas development. Nepal Infrastructure & Finance: After floods, Nepal plans “higher bridges,” estimates $4.77B needed for Rasuwa reconstruction, and moves toward removing VAT on electricity; lawmakers also pushed for faster, more result-oriented agricultural research and tighter IPO eligibility rules. Digital Finance: Hana Bank issued South Korea’s first digital bond using Euroclear’s blockchain settlement, while DeFi Technologies’ Valour launched an AI-powered hedge fund.

UK Economy & Energy Costs: KPMG forecasts UK growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, but warns higher energy bills and borrowing costs will slow spending in the second half. Policy & Taxes: Tory leader Kemi Badenoch vows to scrap the tourist tax and restore VAT-free shopping for visitors, pitching a £4bn high-street boost. Workplace Rules: Australia’s workplace psychosocial hazards shift from guidance to enforceable duties, with employers expected to proactively manage psychological risk. IMF Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says stubborn inflation, higher debt costs and AI investment risks keep global growth under pressure. AI & Investment: Singapore reports electronic exports up 131.8% as AI-driven data-centre demand supports manufacturing despite trade tensions. Rates Watch (Nigeria): Nigeria’s central bank faces a rate-cut dilemma as inflation cools but petrol prices and oil-linked pressures persist. Regional Power Projects (Nigeria): Abuja’s Idu industrial zone is set for 50MW electrification, aiming for 10MW by Dec 2026 to support jobs and output. Iran Economy: Iran’s GDP contracted 10.1% year-on-year during the war period, with sanctions and oil-route disruption cited. US Economy & AI Infrastructure: US private spending on data centres and information-processing equipment has overtaken residential construction, signaling capital flowing to AI infrastructure.

China’s Power Demand: China’s electricity use topped 1 trillion kWh again in August, with record peak load and faster growth in high-tech manufacturing and new-economy services, signaling ongoing industrial upgrading. Maldives GDP Slump: Maldives real GDP shrank 12.3% in Q2 2026, driven mainly by a sharp drop in tourist bed-nights hitting accommodation and food services. Azerbaijan Energy Legacy: Azerbaijan marked Oil Workers’ Day and the 32nd anniversary of the “Contract of the Century,” with the economy minister linking oil jobs to future energy expansion. AI Trade Push: The China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning unveiled an AI marketplace connecting Chinese AI solutions with ASEAN needs, with products and orders on-site. UK Growth Debate: UK Lib Dems warned a “computer says no” approach is holding back growth, proposing a digital one-stop-shop and a new growth-and-defence partnership with the EU. France Debt Warning: France’s finance ministry said debt will hit the highest level since 1978 as deficits stay high. Jordan Power Financing: The IFC is considering up to $200m for a 700MW gas-fired plant in Mafraq to boost reliability and energy security. India Auto Festive Drive: India’s automakers are ramping up festive launches, including CNG upgrades and EV offerings, as demand accelerates. Kerala UPI Backlash: Kerala traders plan to boycott UPI on Oct 15 over proposed transaction charges. Assam Tea Incentives: Assam revised incentives for tea exporters, including a Rs 3/kg export boost for single-origin Assam quality CTC tea via the Guwahati auction system. Türkiye Exports to US: Türkiye’s exports to the US rose 12.9% in Jan-Aug, led by chemicals and machinery.

UK Economy & Investment: Liberal Democrats’ Daisy Cooper says a new EU single-market/customs-union/defence deal would “reverse Brexit damage” and keep start-ups in Britain by cutting barriers to investment, innovation and skills. India Farm Welfare: PM Modi’s push for farmers’ incomes and social security is highlighted through the PM-KMY pension scheme, now in its seventh year, aimed at small and marginal farmers. EU Banking: EU officials in Dublin argue banks need bigger scale and deeper capital markets to compete with the US, warning that political friction still blocks cross-border consolidation. AI & Industrial Policy: China’s central bank adviser says AI could worsen supply-demand imbalance unless consumption rises and balance sheets are repaired; in the US, Trump announces an “AI Force” and an AI coordinator while resisting broad AI curbs. Global Shocks & Energy: Fiji secures a $210m ADB package to cushion fuel/food shocks and strengthen disaster readiness as growth forecasts soften. Local Governance & Services: Spain’s turnaround is credited to exports, labour-market reforms and investment; France faces a debt-to-GDP jump toward 121.7% in 2027, driven by persistent deficits. Digital Economy Backlash: US cities face rising opposition to data centers, with moratoriums spreading as communities worry about costs and impacts. Youth & Skills: Pakistan’s ACCA urges governance and transparent reporting to close fiscal gaps, while India’s youth-focused push stresses skills keeping pace with a changing economy.

Cybersecurity & Trust: Uganda’s UCC urged tech firms to treat public confidence as the real test of digital security, not just compliance checklists. Digital Payments Policy: India may scrap the BHIM-UPI and RuPay debit incentive scheme as it shifts to differentiated UPI merchant pricing, with a new fund to support small merchants. Outward Investment: India’s outward FDI commitments rose 23.3% to $3.8bn in August, led by guarantees for overseas units. Central Banking & Inflation: Japan’s BOJ lifted rates again, citing rising inflation risks amid Middle East uncertainty and yen weakness. US Economy & Rates Politics: Kevin Warsh’s Fed rate hike drew scrutiny as election-year pressure and tariff talk swirl around growth and inflation. Energy & Shipping Risk: Economists warn the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab are both under strain, threatening global oil and freight flows. Public Finance Stress: France’s public debt is set to hit 121.7% of GDP in 2027, highlighting fiscal sustainability worries. Social Security Cost Shock: US proposals to avoid Social Security cuts could mean up to ~$3,000 more in annual taxes for a typical worker. Blue Economy & Industry Land: Odisha pushed coastline cleanup to protect livelihoods and its blue economy, while Kerala plans land-law changes to speed industrial and tourism development. E-waste Push: Cambodia launched a $30m, five-year initiative to cut e-waste and move toward a circular economy.

Canada Nuclear Policy: Ottawa published the next step for a Deep Geological Repository, moving to list the project under the Building Canada Act—aimed at long-term used-fuel management and energy security. AI in Work & Health: Recruiters are testing “agent” workflows to speed sourcing and outreach, while US health policy debates AI slowdown calls, Medicare prior-authorization denials, and a push for outcome-based care models. Energy Costs Hit Everywhere: Diesel hit a record $6.44/gallon, squeezing farmers, trucking and food logistics; Iran-linked shipping risk is also driving one-day oil tanker costs above $1m. US-Russia Sanctions: Trump signed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill targeting officials, banks, and a shadow tanker fleet, with tariff powers aimed at Moscow’s energy revenues. Nigeria Creative Economy Push: Tinubu met Bolloré in Paris to expand film, entertainment and fibre-optic investment, betting on jobs and digitalisation. Local Growth Signals: Georgia hospitals report $145B in annual economic impact; Kyrgyzstan sees rising bankruptcy filings, with 29 enterprises still in process. Markets & Business: Skyworks extended Qorvo note exchange offers; Purdue warns tight corn/soy stocks could keep prices elevated.

China Fiscal Pullback: China’s broad public spending fell faster in August, deepening weak demand and shrinking the deficit, as policymakers lean on faster use of existing budget allocations rather than new stimulus. Nepal Mining Reform: Nepal’s lawmakers and ministers discussed the Mines and Minerals Bill, pushing for investment-friendly rules, faster environmental/forest processes, and tighter limits on long-held mining licenses. Nepal LP Gas Shortage: Nepal’s LP gas market is facing shortages despite large cylinder stocks, with critics alleging “artificial shortage” and traders’ hoarding. Malaysia Jobs Pressure: Malaysia reported 68,177 job losses since January to Sept 16, mainly in manufacturing and retail, while unemployment stayed at 3% and employment programs helped rehire workers. UK Monetary Policy Shift: The Bank of England confirmed a major change to quantitative tightening, moving away from selling gilts toward a new unwinding plan through 2035. Russia War Economy: Russia’s military spending is weighing on sentiment and growth, with deficits rising and reserves shrinking, though oil revenues are still funding the push. Nigeria Refinery IPO: Dangote Petroleum Refinery launched an IPO opening ownership to Nigerians, with a ₦5,250 minimum subscription. Energy & Markets: Oil eased as Middle East supply fears softened; India’s rupee held near 95.89 per dollar and markets ended mixed.

Central Bank & Inflation: The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years to 3.75%-4%, with economists warning the next moves may depend heavily on Trump-era policy choices, including tariffs and Iran. Agri-Business Costs: A new rate-hike backdrop is expected to squeeze U.S. farmers ahead of harvest, as inflation proves stubborn and more increases are possible. Housing & Mortgages: Higher bond yields are already pushing up mortgage rates in Canada, adding pressure on housing prices. Public Sector Pay: Nigeria’s civil servants are urging the finance and economy ministers to clear a delayed 40% allowance and promotion arrears, warning continued slippage is fueling unrest. Market Monitoring: The UAE published August price data for 33 essential goods across 13 outlets, aiming to boost transparency and price control. Climate Shock to Food: Heavy flooding in northern Vietnam has submerged thousands of homes and damaged large areas of rice and other crops. Local Economy & Tourism: New Orleans’ Omni hotel approval advances a major convention-and-Super Bowl bid, while Minnesota’s fall colors remain a tourism spending engine despite tighter budgets. Tech & Capital: Singapore’s August export rebound points to ongoing AI-driven demand, and Tampa Bay Wave says its portfolio has raised over $2B in capital. Gig Work Pay: California’s gig-driver union certification raises the stakes for minimum pay and deactivation appeals at the bargaining table. Corporate Governance: Infighting at India’s Tata Group deepened as Tata Trusts challenged board moves, clouding the group’s next steps. Energy Geopolitics: China’s oil stockpiling and import throttling helped blunt global price spikes during the Iran war, shaping today’s energy landscape.

Fed Rate Hike Watch: The U.S. Federal Reserve lifted rates by a quarter point for the first time in three years, with Chair Kevin Warsh stressing it won’t immediately cut prices and that future moves will hinge on incoming data. UK Rates & Housing Pressure: As the Bank of England prepares its decision, UK mortgage rates jumped to the highest since 2023, while economists warn the bond market and cost-of-living fears are tightening the squeeze. Asia Central Banks Diverge: Thailand kept policy “very, very accommodative” at 1.00% to support a weak economy, while Japan is widely expected to raise rates again to around a three-decade high as inflation and wages stay firm. Semiconductors Push: India’s Semicon 2.0 aims to target at least 200 chip design startups and companies, expanding beyond talent and ecosystem building. Energy & Trade Costs: Chile is considering E10 ethanol blending to cut fuel supply costs as oil prices strain budgets; Armenia says Azerbaijani gasoline helped limit domestic fuel price spikes. Infrastructure & Local Economy: Georgia Ports’ workforce housing investment topped $2M, while Kathmandu launched a mobile app to report road damage—both aimed at easing everyday economic friction. Housing Affordability Warning: A study says more money for vouchers hasn’t helped enough renters because rising rents absorb the gains.

Fed Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in its first hike in three years, citing still-elevated inflation and resilient spending, while Trump again pushed for rates near 1%. US Consumer Demand: Retail sales rebounded 1.2% in August, excluding gas up 1.1%, suggesting the economy can absorb higher borrowing costs even as confidence softens. Australia Inflation Fight: The IMF urged Australia’s RBA to stay ready to hike further, warning energy-price risks and weak productivity could keep inflation sticky. Russia Sanctions & Tariffs: The US House passed the Lindsey Graham-named Russia sanctions bill, sending it to Trump; it targets Russian officials and energy flows and grants tariff authority up to 100% for major Russian oil and gas buyers. Housing & Local Growth: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu tied economic momentum to more housing, while Santa Barbara backed California housing propositions ahead of the general election. Digital Economy & Inclusion: Nigeria highlighted expanding digital identity as a foundation for Africa’s digital economy, and the CBN said financial inclusion must improve real household outcomes, especially for women and rural communities. AI Economy Pressure: Multiple reports warn women are being pushed out of the AI economy and that AI slowdowns could hit growth. Energy Costs: Korea’s fuel-price caps are getting harder to sustain as crude rises, raising the risk of renewed cost pressure. Business Deals: Generac agreed to supply Amazon with up to $8B in backup generators for data centers.